Read our UFC White House best bets for this live event on Saturday from the White House lawn in Washington, DC. We have a special 8:00 p.m. Sunday ET start time for this seven-fight card.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 7-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Steve Garcia is both the bigger man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage) and the better striker than Diego Lopes, a dynamic athlete with significant power and world-class jiu-jitsu.
Lopes has quickly risen to title-contender status in the promotion, but he has rarely proven himself the better fighter in extended contests against UFC-caliber opponents. When the fast finish doesn't materialize, Lopes can struggle to implement his style and win minutes consistently.
Garcia is both the more technically proficient and more voluminous striker. If he can deny takedowns and keep this fight standing against an elite grappler with questionable offensive wrestling, this should be his fight to lose.
My model makes Garcia a slight favorite in this fight, and I would bet his moneyline at +105.
Additionally, you can bet the fight to go to a decision down to +190, or play Garcia to win by decision to +400.
Between a lackluster decision win over Paul Craig and his upset at the hands — or more accurately, knees — of Renier de Ridder, Bo Nickal's stock in the minds of MMA fans dropped massively in late 2024/early 2025. I've seen more discussion of those two fights in the lead-up to UFC Freedom 250 than I have of his most recent performance, a third-round head kick knockout over Rodolfo Viera.
The contrast between his approach to the Viera fight and the Craig fight is important here. Both men, like his opponent this weekend, Kyle Daukaus, are high-level submission grapplers. Viera is by far the most credentialed of the bunch, with five IBJJF world titles and an ADCC championship. Where Nickal was content to have a tepid striking match with Craig rather than test the Scots' ground game, he took the fight to Viera, taking him down twice on three attempts.
My working theory is that Nickal and his team were using the Craig fight as an opportunity to gain some experience striking in the UFC, with Craig posing almost no threat to Nickal on the feet. That may have paid dividends, as he eventually finished Rodolfo Viera with a third-round head kick after wearing the Brazilian down with wrestling early.
Kyle Daukaus is, in many ways, a similar matchup. "The D'Arce Knight" has 11 pro submission victories, most by his namesake D'Arce choke, but is a poor striker who was knocked out in consecutive fights in his first UFC stint. He's gone 2-0 upon his return, with stoppages over Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert, but Nickal is a much tougher test.
Which is why Nickal is a -300 or so favorite in this matchup. Rather than lay the juice, I'm betting Nickal to finish this fight. All but one of his pro wins have come inside the distance, and Daukaus isn't especially durable, nor cautious. If Nickal is dominating with his wrestling, Daukaus will begin to sell out for submission attempts, likely creating finishing opportunities for Nickal.
The best part is we're getting that at slightly plus-money, with the best odds of +102 coming via BetRivers.
Pick: Bo Nickal Wins Inside the Distance +102 (BetRivers)
Despite the main event between Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje featuring prohibitive odds on the Spaniard’s side of the money line, I found a way to turn a 6-1 favorite into a plus-money play across the board.
I am, of course, referring to the use of an SGP (same game parlay) to get the job done, which can admittedly be dangerous given that I’m chasing an Under 1.5 rounds total in this equation.
However, aside from the consensus being that Topuria smokes Gaethje early, I have some interesting stats to help support those claims.
Aside from the fact that Gaethje’s understated vision issues forces him to be a more sensory and tactile striker (which is why fighters with timing change-ups and counters have traditionally been his kryptonite), the American highlight reel has quietly lost the first round in seven of his last eight fights — which is the kind of ground you can’t afford to give to a pressuring precision artist like Topuria.
The Under 1.5 straight still carries value and playability on its own, but this is a clear path to plus money
Pick: Ilia Topuria & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP +102 (FanDuel)
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