Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 109 (Saturday, August 9)

Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez Odds

Check out the Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez prediction for UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, with my betting preview and breakdown.

On a fight night chock-full of heavy favorites, one of the more competitively lined bouts takes place in the featherweight division between Christian Rodriguez and Andre Fili. Both fighters have dropped two of their last three fights, and are coincidentally coming off a loss against the same opponent. I believe there is value on the underdog here, in what should be a closely contested fight.

Here's my Fili vs. Rodriguez pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Christian Rodriguez is a well-rounded athlete with slick boxing, good wrestling and a ground game to hang on the mat with nearly every opponent in his path. Rodriguez compiled a 4-1 record at bantamweight, before making the move up to featherweight after several difficult weight cuts. He missed weight in consecutive bouts against Raul Rosas and Cameron Saaiman at his former weight class.

The problem for Rodriguez at featherweight is his lack of size in comparison to his opponents. This will be the third fight in his last four where C-Rod will be at a 3-inch height disadvantage or greater.

Andre Fili usually enjoys a height and length advantage over featherweight opponents, and this fight will not be any different. Fili has fast hands to compete in boxing exchanges, but it is his skill with his kicks that are more essential for this specific matchup.

Keeping the fight at distance will not only allow Fili to frustrate the shorter Rodriguez at distance, but it will also make it more difficult for Rodriguez to implement his wrestling. Fili is at his best when he fights behind his jab and actively uses his kicking attack.

Rodriguez averages 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, but over his last two fights he has landed 8 in total. Fili boasts a solid 70% takedown defense over the course of his long career and he has given up multiple takedowns just once in his last 16 UFC bouts.

Despite both men suffering submission losses fairly recently, these are two very savvy fighters on the mat and I do not expect a submission to materialize for either man.

Fili’s negative striking differential is certainly a concern, but that is baked into his underdog price tag. Rodriguez won’t be easy to thwart, but maintaining distance while putting out the necessary volume is his clear path to victory. His 126 significant strikes attempted at distance against Cub Swanson just two fights ago lead me to believe Fili can still execute this gameplan effectively at age 35.

If Rodriguez can move into boxing range without facing constant resistance, he will look like the rightful -250 favorite. However, if he overextends himself I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fili shoot for a takedown, as he does possess good timing and accuracy with his attempts when he does pull the trigger. 

Rodriguez also holds an edge in durability, but I don’t believe he is going to make quick work of a veteran like Fili. Fili has suffered knockouts before, but Rodriguez doesn’t carry the explosiveness of more powerful featherweights like Dan Ige or Joanderson Brito who have finished Fili in the past.

Fili vs. Rodriguez Pick, Prediction

Rodriguez faces an uphill battle at featherweight being undersized. He will have a more difficult time closing the distance against longer opponents and he will struggle controlling his opponents on the mat simply having to face larger and stronger fighters.

I am willing to take my chances here that Fili’s distance management is the story of the fight and he gets his hand raised.

John's Pick: Andre Fili +200 (DraftKings)