Read for an Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.
Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo Odds
| Maksum Odds | -450 |
| Raposo Odds | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-190 / +140) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 10:20 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 321 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's my Maksum vs. Raposo pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Maksum | Raposo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-2-0 | 9-3-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:44 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 64" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 2/2/1995 | 10/16/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.24 | 1.62 |
| SS Accuracy | 28% | 33% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.33 | 3.54 |
| TD Acc | 28% | 37% |
| TD Def | 85% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Maksum vs. Raposo Pick, Prediction
Azat Maksum missed weight by three pounds on Friday and forfeited 30% of his purse as a penalty to keep the fight on the card.
Maksum is the bigger man (2" taller, 6" reach advantage) the more well-rounded fighter, and the better athlete than Raposo; who lost on Contender Series ans has fought to a pair of undeserved split decision losses against Andre Lima (out-struck 49-32 at distance) and Sumudaerji (out-struck 39-8 at distance) by proactively wrestling (went 6-for-19 against Sumudaerji, generated 4:18 control time) Just four percent and eleven percent of fans scored those respective bouts for Raposo.
Conversely, 43% of fans thought that Maksum deserved his split loss against No. 12-ranked flyweight Tagir Ulanbekov.
I view Maksum as the far better striker, but also the superior wrestler and grappler to Raposo, and unless Maksum's typically excellent cardio falls apart—or his chin is compromised—by the weight miss, I'm unsure how Raposo wins this matchup.
I do project value on the favorite – setting his moneyline closer to -640, and I would consider using Maksum as a parlay piece to around -615. While I would generally be more concerned about the weight miss, I don't see Raposo posing much of a stylistic threat to him in this matchup.
I also project an edge on the fight to reach a decision (projected -169, listed -135) and on Maksum to win by decision (projected -120, listed +110); however, I would prefer to lay his point spread (-5.5, -120) to cover his combined finish and dominant decision equity.
Projection: Maksum (86.5%)
Sean's Pick:
- Azat Maksum -5.5 Points (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to -150
- Parlay (+114, 0.25u): Azat Maksum (-420), Hamdy Abdelwahab (-460), Nurmagomedov-Bautista Fight Goes to Decision (-235) at FanDuel; bet to -110
