Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia Odds, Prediction
| Kattar Odds | +105 |
| Garcia Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-160/ +124) |
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC Nashville odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Nashville with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.
While they're only four years apart in age, the Steve Garcia vs. Calvin Kattar main card fight feels like an aging veteran taking on a prospect matchup. Kattar is on a four-fight losing streak, while Garcia has picked up five straight wins all via knockout. However, this one feels like the rare version of that trope where the veteran isn't necessarily just being fed to the youngster — as reflected in the close betting line.
Here's my Kattar vs. Garcia pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Kattar | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-9 | 17-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:45 | 5:08 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/26/1988 | 5/22/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.60 | 5.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 56% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.62 | 2.34 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.36 | 1.17 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 40% |
| TD Def | 77% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Calvin Kattar enters this fight at 37 years old, having lost his last four fights, and with over 18 years of professional fighting experience.
While he's not that much older than Steve Garcia, that's a ton more mileage — especially considering he's the UFC record holder for most significant strikes absorbed in a fight.
Despite all that, I wouldn't describe "The Boston Finisher" as washed. His four-fight losing streak has come against top-ten featherweights, and the only time he's been finished in the Octagon was due to a knee injury.
The rangy Kattar is best known for his high-volume boxing-based approach, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute despite just a 38% accuracy rate. That works out to more than 12 strike attempts per minute, which Kattar throws in bunches.
His accuracy rate is a bit misleading, as Kattar's combinations are often designed to land one or two heavy shots at the end, with the other strikes working to set up his opponent. He has also fought some of the sport's best strikers, so the tough strength of schedule impacts his numbers.
Still, his defensive deficiencies are real. Kattar is always pushing forward into the pocket, and his long combinations leave him vulnerable to opponents who can disrupt his timing — especially with kicks. He also doesn't fight well moving backwards, as Holloway proved by pressuring him constantly in their fight.
While Steve Garcia isn't much of a kicker, he certainly has the physical tools to force Kattar to fight backing up. "The Mean Machine" has one speed — all out. He's also one of the tallest and longest featherweights on the roster, and the rare opponent with a considerable reach edge over Kattar.
Like Kattar, he's primarily a boxer. While Kattar overloads opponents' defense with volume, Garcia blows them away with power, and all six of his UFC wins have come within seven minutes.
The two big questions here are whether he can become the first man to knock out Kattar outside of his knee injury TKO — and what happens if he doesn't.
Garcia's all-out style probably doesn't leave him much gas in the tank for the later rounds, while Kattar is a veteran of many five-round fights and has finished strong even in losses. He's relied heavily on his durability instead of his defense to get to the later rounds, though, and that's an attribute that can disappear in a hurry.
I also haven't mentioned the grappling dynamics in this fight. Kattar was a standout high school wrestler before transitioning to MMA, and it would be wise to look for an early takedown or two to sap Garcia's cardio and power.
That's easier said than done, as many Garcia opponents have that game plan but ultimately are unsuccessful. Garcia is probably the better fighter if it does get to the ground anyway, and he's been able to turn takedown attempts from his opponents into ground and pound wins on numerous occasions.
Kattar vs. Garcia, Prediction, Odds
Anyone who read my Luck Ratings earlier this week knows how I bet this one, and the lines have remained essentially unchanged, with the best price on Garcia now -120 at Caesars.
I'm adding on to that bet — which I made for half of a unit — with Garcia to win by knockout at +210 on FanDuel.
I project a knockout victory as a much bigger proportion of the win condition for Garcia — a stance shared by oddsmakers at other books, who all have his knockout prop around +165.
With all that said, should this fight extend, I'll be looking for opportunities to live bet Kattar. The best option is probably following the first round, but if a big price shows up while he has the chance to steal the second frame, I would still be interested.
Billy's Pick: Steve Garcia -120 (Caesars) 0.6 units | Garcia KO +210 (FanDuel) .4 units
