Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado Odds
| Radtke Odds | -180 |
| Prado Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Charles Radtke vs. Francisco Prado prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Radtke vs. Prado pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Radtke | Prado | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-5 | 12-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:33 | 12:49 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 07/09/1990 | 06/16/2002 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.80 | 4.09 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 43% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.63 | 4.95 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| TD Acc | 30% | 19% |
| TD Def | 100% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 0.5 |
Radtke vs. Prado Pick, Prediction
The first fight on Saturday's card featured a significant age gap, as 23-year-old Argentine Francisco Prado meets 35-year-old American Charles Radtke.
When there is at least a decade between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won 71% of the time (460-187) at average odds of -131 (56.8% implied), nearly 15% above expectation.
Prado is well-trained, working at American Top Team in South Florida, and given his age, athleticism, and training situation, should continue to improve as an MMA fighter, despite a 1-4 record in the promotion. He has arguably faced the tougher UFC competition than Radtke, too.
Chuck Buffalo is the more well-rounded fighter and has a 3" reach advantage, but Prado can close the distance as the more durable man; he hits just as hard (if not harder), and has improved his grappling to the point where he should be able to keep the fight standing and engage in a 50/50 striking battle.
Prado can get countered as he tries to close the distance, but if he forces a pocket brawl, you're betting a coin flip at a near 40% expectation.
Bet Prado's moneyline to +120 (projected +111), and consider his odds to win by decision (projected +446, listed +900 at DraftKings) despite projecting him as the likelier of the pair to finish the fight.
Projection: Radtke (52.6%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Francisco Prado (+163, 0.5u), Polymarket, bet to +120
