Check out our Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Chase Hooper vs. Alexander Hernandez Odds
| Hooper Odds | +125 |
| Hernandez Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-225/+16o) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 319 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Hooper vs. Hernandez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Hooper | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-3-1 | 16-8-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:09 | 10:31 |
| Height | 6'1" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/13/1999 | 10/1/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.53 | 4.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.96 | 4.62 |
| SS Defense | 38% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.59 | 1.24 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 36% |
| TD Def | 55% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 2.2 | 0.1 |
Hooper vs. Hernandez Pick, Prediction
Alexander Hernandez is often a handful for five minutes — with seven first-round finishes in his career — but he tends to fade by the midpoint of his fights, after overpowering every striking and grappling technique from the opening bell.
Pairing Hernandez with Chase Hooper presents an opportunity for Hooper to weaponize his pace and cardio once again against a smaller opponent (4" taller, 2" reach advantage). Hooper is seven years younger and will show far better tenacity throughout this contest than his opponent.
Hernandez is capable of winning violently early; Hooper has among the worst distance striking defense in the sport (38%), and if he's not cautious, he could get flatlined by Hernandez, like he did against Steve Garcia.
For that reason, Hernandez winning in Round 1 (+1200) is a worthy flier if you like the underdog.
Still, I'd expect Hooper to take over by the seven-minute mark of the fight. I would not only consider him live after Round 1, but would prefer pre-fight tickets on Hooper to win inside the distance (projected +114, listed -110) or in Round 2 (+510) or Round 3 (+700).
Rather than betting Hernandez Round 1, with Hooper Round 2 and Round 3, bet the fight doesn't go to decision (projected -186, listed -150) alongside Hooper's late round props.
Projection: Hooper (72.4%)
