Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Atlanta

Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds, Prediction

Check out my Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos predictions, picks and odds for UFC Atlanta on Saturday, June 14.

For a bout taking place on the lower-end of the main card of a fight night, the stakes feel quite high. Former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt takes on Raoni Barcelos in what is undoubtedly a career crossroads for both men. Both fighters are 2-2 in the last four fights, and this matchup is one that will determine if either can regain their contender status.

Here's my Garbrandt vs. Barcelos prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Raoni Barcelos pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year in his last appearance, when he derailed the hype train of super-prospect Payton Talbott. It was an incredibly impressive performance in many ways by Barcelos, but most importantly, it was the confirmation of the 38 year old’s recommitment to grappling. 

Barcelos has landed multiple takedowns in three consecutive fights and is a black belt of the highest order. These two simple facts may be a recipe for disaster for Cody Garbrandt. When digging deep into Garbrandt’s former opponents, I believe many lent too much respect to Cody’s wrestling, opting not to pursue grappling the former division one competitor.

However, in Garbrandt’s most recent loss to Deiveson Figueiredo, that path to victory became much more viable, evident that is may not be as difficult as previously perceived.

Garbrandt is a boxer with great movement skills, athleticism, and extremely fast hands. It is no easy task to track him down inside the octagon. Figueiredo struggled in round one landing anything of significant nature while striking, deciding in round two to heavily pursue a wrestling gameplan en route to the round two submission win over Garbrandt.

The Barcelos camp will see this as the path of least resistance heading into Saturday night. While Garbrandt has the edge in speed and boxing skills, Barcelos is no slouch on the feet. His straightforward approach will not be an easy task for Garbrandt to defend.

In fact, Barcelos holds the edge in both striking accuracy and output, landing at a 53% rate on significant strikes over the course of his career in comparison to Garbrandt’s 40%; and landing 5.1 significant strikes per minute to Garbrandt’s 2.9. I also believe Barcelos is the more durable fighter here.

When the fight is playing out at striking range, Garbrandt tends to stay quite heavy on his front foot when moving around the octagon. While Barcelos isn’t known for his kicking attack, he has shown the ability to use timely low kicks. Landing low kicks would be a sound strategy in slowing down the movement of Garbrandt, someone who has been quite susceptible to the technique in the past. Over Garbrandt’s last seven fights his opponents have landed 39 of 55 leg kick attempts, an accuracy rate of 71%.

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Garbrandt vs. Barcelos Prediction

Cresting the age of 35 in the lower weight classes usually means your demise in the division is right around the corner, but both of these men are elderly statesmen in that regard.

Barcelos’ skills have a better chance to translate to longevity as he has more paths to victory each time he enters the cage, even at his advanced age. This matchup certainly has a level of volatility to it, but I am riding with the fighter who has the ability to limit that variance by dragging this fight to the mat.

Cody Garbrandt will prove to be an easier obstacle to overcome than was Barcelos’ last opponent in Talbott. Lay the chalk with the favorite.

John's Pick: Raoni Barcelos Moneyline -200 (BetRivers)