Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Odds, Prediction
| Blaydes Odds | -238 |
| Kuniev Odds | +195 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (+100/-130) |
| Location | Baku Crystal Hall | Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 4:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Baku odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev predictions, picks and odds for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 21.
The UFC is not wasting any time in testing Rizvan Kuniev as he takes on heavyweight mainstay Curtis Blaydes. In what is being billed by some as grappler versus grappler, I believe each man has advantages that could lead to this fight not making it to the judges’ scorecards. Given the fact that Kuniev has never been finished inside the distance in his MMA career, we are getting a very good price for this bout to not make it the full three rounds.
Here's my Blaydes vs. Kuniev prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Blaydes | Kuniev | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 12-2-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:36 | 8:00 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 265 lbs. | 240 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/18/1991 | 3/10/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.54 | 5.82 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 72% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.91 | 1.25 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.62 | 2.82 |
| TD Acc | 53% | 75% |
| TD Def | 31% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
It’s difficult to know exactly what we are going to get out of Kuniev on Saturday. Don’t be fooled by his 5.8 significant strikes landed per minute mark, most of that came in one fight on his Dana White Contender Series debut.
He is a low volume striker on the feet, but he does possess good timing and has the quickness to land something damaging to Blaydes. As is well documented, Blaydes is not the most durable heavyweight. Of all the contenders in the division’s upper-echelon, he is probably the most susceptible being knocked out.
In Blaydes’ defense, he has only been put down by some of the heaviest hitters the sport has ever seen. I am certainly not putting Kuniev into that category, but as a fighter ages (Blaydes is now 34) it’s always worth considering that any clean shot may be the one that cracks his chin once and for all.
The lack of output from Kuniev may actually make Blaydes feel more comfortable staying at distance for longer stretches of time, which in my estimation is a mistake for one of the best heavyweight wrestlers in the modern era.
The real determining factor in this fight is the wrestling. Which man is going for takedowns and are they successfully staying in a dominant position? For as great of offensive wrestler as Blaydes is, his takedown defense is quite poor at just 31%. Yes, Jalton Almeida greatly lowered that figure, but Kuniev landing offensive takedowns is absolutely a path for him winning this fight. With that said, we have also seen Kuniev get reversed on the mat by much lesser men in terms of grappling prowess.
The most likely outcome of this fight involves Curtis Blaydes getting back to what he does best. Blaydes has never lost back to back fights in the UFC, and in his first three losses in the organization, he followed that up with wrestling based performances – racking up 15 total takedowns in those three rebound victories.
If Blaydes can remain on top for the majority of each round, the finish will materialize. This is a massive step up in competition for Kuniev. Not only is he tasked with beating a fighter as accomplished as Blaydes, but the elephant in the room is that he tested positive for an abundance of steroids just two fights ago. Since then he did grab another victory on DWCS, but that fight lasted less than one round and his opponent wasn’t exactly UFC level.
Blaydes vs. Kuniev Prediction
If the fight remains standing, I could see a power shot landing by either man that rocks the other. If the fight hits the mat, either man can unleash enough offense to potentially get a TKO, giving usare multiple ways for this fight to end inside the distance.
It feels much more likely a big moment ends this contest than it does seeing 15 minutes of boring wrestling exchanges where neither man gets tired. At some point, someone will find an opening and assert their dominance, with Blaydes being the most likely candidate.
John's Pick: Fight ends inside the distance -158 (FanDuel)
