Check out the Derrick Lewis vs. Tallison Teixeira prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Lewis vs. Teixeira pick and prediction with odds.
Lewis vs. Teixeira Odds
| Lewis Odds | +260 |
| Teixeira Odds | -325 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+154 / -200) |
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC Nashville odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Nashville with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Heavyweight knockout king Derrick Lewis will return to the cage on Saturday for his 30th promotional bout and 13th main event or five-round fight, hoping to extend his record for most KO finishes in UFC history to 16.
The 40-year-old Lewis earned his 15th KO win over Rodrigo Nascimento last May as the headliner in St. Louis, Missouri, his 41st professional bout.
Conversely, Tallison Teixeira has just eight professional bouts – including one on the Contender Series and just one in the UFC – and has never fought beyond the four-minute mark of the first round.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Nashville Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these Heavyweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (8:45 p.m. PT) on ESPN on Saturday night.
Here's my Lewis vs. Teixeira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lewis | Teixeira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 28-12 | 8-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:09 | 1:16 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 260 lbs. | 258 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 83" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/7/1985 | 12/7/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.48 | 14.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 59% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.48 | 7.50 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.57 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 0% |
| TD Def | 52% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Tallison Teixeira is the bigger man (4" taller, 4" reach advantage), the much younger fighter (a near 15-year age gap), and the quicker athlete in this matchup.
Typically, when there is a substantial age gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighter is undervalued. A ten-year age gap had led to a 70.7% win rate for the younger fighters at average odds of -140 (58.5% implied); and if you increase the threshold to 14 years, the younger fighters are 72-27 (72.3%) at average odd of -135 (57.5% implied) – winning nearly 15% above expectation.
While the age curve at Heavyweight (average age of 36) is softer than the other divisions – and fighters can stay competitive into their forties – Lewis seems like exactly the type of fighter who would be overvalued in this instance; publicly known, popular for his style, and at underdog odds against a relatively anonymous opponent.
Teixeira is an aggressive pressure fighter who looks much quicker than his lengthy frame would indicate; he has the speed of a middleweight. Still, given his limited fight time, there are substantial questions surrounding his skillset; whether he can take a punch, sustain his style beyond five minutes, grapple or wrestle offensively or defensively, and fight through adversity, among other things.
His durability will almost certainly get tested against Lewis. When Teixeira pressures, he leaves himself open to head strikes from opponents as he wades in, and I'd expect Lewis to try to stun him with a counter off the back foot.
Still, Lewis is far more effective when he's moving forward as opposed to backing up – and it would behoove him to put the pressure on Teixeira from the opening bell.
While we have not seen Teixeira show much respect to his opponents – and look to pressure them immediately – I'd anticipate a slightly more conservative start from him, against one of the more prolific knockout artists in the history of combat sports. As a result, if Teixeira doesn't apply pressure from the outset, I'd look for Lewis to bring the fight to him and force Teixeira to retreat.
Still, Teixeira should be able to evade those attacks and remain safe, provided he doesn't recklessly crash into the pocket. He has a more diverse striking game -working kicks to the legs and body – and he's particularly effective at framing off opponents in the clinch, and leveraging his frame into knees and elbows.
Ultimately, that's how I expect Teixeira to finish the fight: with knees to the body in the clinch. Lewis has shown good durability to head strikes throughout his career, but his body and legs are soft and wear down from attritional damage far more quickly.
As a result, I'd expect a more measured start from Teixeira before he amplifies the pressure, after backing Lewis up with strikes to the legs and body, before looking to close the show.
Lewis vs. Teixeira, Prediction, Odds
I projected Tallison Teixeira as a -321 favorite for Saturday, and I would consider using his moneyline as a parlay piece, up to -305 (at a one percent edge compared to my projection).
