Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler Odds
| Ruffy Odds | -650 |
| Chandler Odds | +470 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+100/-130) |
| Location | White House Lawn, Washington DC |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Freedom 250 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Freedom 250 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
UFC Freedom 250 features a lightweight showdown between Mauricio Ruffy and Michael Chandler. Ruffy has proven to be Grade-A highlight fodder since coming off of Dana White's Contender Series, but this will be an undeniable step up for the Brazilian, at least on paper.
Chander, who has definitely seen better days, is desperately trying to stop the bleeding of a three-fight losing skid. On the bright side, however, Chandler will have a nice homecourt advantage amongst his fellow Americans in a spot that the former Bellator champion is clearly relishing.
Here's my Ruffy vs. Chandler pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ruffy | Chandler | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 23-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:00 | 9:37 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/17/1996 | 4/24/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.19 | 4.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.09 | 4.52 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 1.96 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 41% |
| TD Def | 85% | 61% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.6 |
Although this matchup gives off some striker vs. grappler feels at first glance, Chander has had a penchant for slugging things out on the feet for some time now.
A proverbial bull in a China shop, Chandler is the definition of explosive and tends to run hot early. From clubbing right hands to shifting left hooks, Chandler brings all the classic blitzes that are available for his wrestle-boxing archetype.
Chandler displayed much better defensive responsibilities when working with boxing coach Gil Martinez, but has since abandoned most of those sensibilities as his career has gone on.
The former Mizzou Tiger has some solid ground-and-pound and underrated grappling skills from his time spent with catch wrestling coach Neil Melanson, but I'm not sure how sharp those tools are given all the dust they've collected in recent years.
Should Chandler try to implement said strengths, then we will likely get a better look at Ruffy's potential improvements since getting worked over by Benoit St. Denis two fights ago.
A natural striking savant, Ruffy shows skills and swagger that jump off the page. Possessing insane proprioception that fuels his accuracy, Ruffy can find potentially fight-ending shots at the drop of a dime.
Ruffy recently left his famed home of the Fighting Nerds to build his own team, where he now works and cross-trains with the likes of current featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski.
Volkanovski has stated that their main focus was to shore up the grappling holes in Ruffy's game, so it will be nice to get another look at the 'new and improved' Brazilian since his win over Rafael Fiziev earlier this year.
Ruffy vs. Chandler Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Brazilian fighter, listing Ruffy -650 and Chandler +420 as of this writing.
Despite my official pick and play, there's no denying that this betting line is just asking for trouble with the width it's currently flexing. So with that in mind, I wouldn't argue with anyone who wanted to take a small stab on Chandler's money line out of principle (or at the very least, stay clear from the Ruffy side).
And though I won't blame anyone for either of those stances, I found an angle that can turn Ruffy's insane 7-1 asking price into even money across the board.
The angle in question is the same tool that typically solves these steep favorite conundrums: SGPs (same game parlays).
The chance of getting caught speeding is always on the table when chasing Under 1.5s, in general, but it's hard not to see some of these totals hitting on a volatile outdoor fight card that has clear smash matches that are built for violence.
As a former training partner of Chandler's way back in the day, you'd think I would chase some underdog action in this spot. But with Chandler only having one win in his last six fights, I feel like the writing is on the wall for the 40-year-old veteran whose miles have clearly caught up with him.
Even if Chandler tries to fight smart and can secure the majority of the first frame, I'm not sure he'll be able to sustain said attacks considering that his control game and cardio have only gotten worse in recent years.
I'll be parlaying Ruffy's knockout props with Hokit to win rounds two and three in case one or both of those fights burn me by going over the 1.5 round total. But if this fight goes over the seven-minute mark, then that means something likely went wrong for Ruffy.
For that reason, I'll gladly gamble on the most likely outcome at plus odds or even money.
Dan's Pick: Ruffy & Under 1.5 Rounds SGP +103 (FanDuel)
