Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Odds
| Lopes Odds | -148 |
| Garcia Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-140/+110) |
| Location | White House Lawn, Washington DC |
| Bout Time | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Freedom 250 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Freedom 250 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC Freedom 250 event opens with a crucial featherweight bout, as two-time title challenger Diego Lopes looks to keep his name in the conversation for the post-Volkanovski era, while Steve Garcia brings a seven-fight winning streak and his own championship aspirations to the UFC's first-ever outdoor fight.
On paper, this fight is a big step up for Garcia, who has yet to be paired with a top-20 opponent but now faces the division's #2 contender. In practice, this fight promises wild action, with 11 performance bonuses between the two men in 19 combined fights.
Will Lopes willingly engage in another wild brawl, or will he disappoint the crowd and press his grappling advantage? That's the key question when handicapping this fight.
Here's my Lopes vs Garcia pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Lopes | Garcia | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 27-8 | 19-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:58 | 5:50 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/30/1994 | 5/22/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.83 | 5.39 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.56 | 2.12 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.88 | 0.86 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 40% |
| TD Def | 68% | 88% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.4 |
Prior to his own stint in the UFC, Diego Lopes served as the head jiu-jitsu coach at Lobo Gym in Mexico, where he taught former women's flyweight champion Alexa Grasso, among others. You wouldn't know it based on his fighting style, though, as he's a more-than-capable striker well known for his fun brawls.
That's largely worked out for him, with his only losses coming in his short-notice debut to presumptive title challenger Movsar Evloev, plus a pair of defeats to featherweight GOAT and current champion Alexander Volkanovski. All three of his losses earned "Fight of the Night" honors, and all three involved Lopes' opponent attempting more takedowns than he did.
However, grappling is his clear best path to victory over Garcia. Garcia is a clean striker with a +3.27 significant strike differential, who also stands southpaw and has a three-inch reach edge. Long, defensively sound lefties are nightmare fuel for most strikers, and each of those attributes is fairly uncommon on their own, but especially in combination.
Never has that been more apparent than in Garcia's last fight, where he absorbed just two of David Onama's 16 significant strikes while landing 33 of his own in a first-round knockout victory:
Garcia's control of range in this fight (and in general) is elite. He managed to press forward while still staying just past the end of Onama's punches, despite only having a one-inch reach edge over the fellow southpaw.
Crucially, the massive Garcia also has elite power, with eight knockdowns landed during his seven fight win streak.
Lopes, to put it mildly, is less cautious on the feet. He's more than happy to plant his feet and exchange, even when he's the longer fighter against Jean Silva. That cost him at points in the second round of that fight, where Silva also notably switched to southpaw for a couple of exchanges. Both times, Silva immediately planted his lead foot outside of Lopes and landed clean combinations, including a rear-side body kick:
Lopes did noticeably land a pair of takedowns when Silva got overly aggressive, though Lopes wasn't proactively hunting them. What I believe will make the difference for Garcia in the grappling department is his somewhat more measured approach. Garcia staying at range and landing long strikes provides far fewer opportunities than Silva leaping in with flying knees and spinning attacks.
To be clear, Lopes would still enjoy a significant edge on the mat if it gets there, but Garcia's 88% takedown defense and general approach make it somewhat unlucky that we have to worry about that.
Lopes vs. Garcia Pick, Prediction
The public has, in my view, correctly moved heavily towards Garcia in this fight, after the American opened at around +170 odds. Some of that might be patriotism more than smart handicapping, but it's still broadly correct.
A primarily striking-based fight likely ends poorly for Lopes here. While he's never been knocked out in the UFC, he has two previous knockout losses, and outside of Silva he hasn't faced many dangerous strikers in the UFC, when factoring in Volkanovski's age for their two fights.
While I'd still be fine taking Garcia at any plus-money, as I view this fight as a pick 'em at worst, I believe there's a better way. Diego Lopes can't afford to stand in front of Garcia and take damage, given the American's extraordinary power. His knockout prop is as high as +250 at Hard Rock Bet, but I'd be more than happy with the widely available +240 lines as well.
Billy's Pick: Garcia by KO/TKO/DQ +250 (Hard Rock Bet)
