Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan Odds
| Ziam Odds | -325 |
| Nolan Odds | +260 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-210/+160) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Macau odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Macau with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Fares Ziam vs. Tom Nolan prediction for UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The main card of UFC Vegas 118 features a showdown between two of the taller lightweights on the roster, Fares Ziam and Tom Nolan. Since losing his last and lone appearance in the Apex opposite Terrance McKinney, Ziam has quietly shored up some of the holes in his game en route to his current six-fight winning streak.
Even though I believe that Ziam deserves a step up as far as on-paper competition is concerned, Nolan should present a fun test. An action fighter who has also had to learn from early UFC adversity, Nolan is looking to add onto his own four-fight streak this Saturday.
Here's my Ziam vs. Nolan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Ziam | Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-4 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:01 | 6:44 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/21/1997 | 3/8/2000 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.87 | 5.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.53 | 4.73 |
| SS Defense | 65% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.73 | 0.74 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 22% |
| TD Def | 71% | 71% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.9 |
Despite Ziam and Nolan looking like strikers at first glance, both men possess underrated grappling skills, albeit in different ways.
Nolan, who operates out of a southpaw stance, does well at striking to his frame. From lancing straight punches to a variation of kicking threats from the rear, Nolan carries most of the weapons that good southpaws should never leave home without.
Although Nolan is not beyond being tagged for his defensive vacancies, the Australian prospect is good about shifting gears to his grappling when he needs to. Nolan may lack the drive on some of his shots, but he has a quick level-change for a man of his size. And once the newly-minted Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt gets a glimpse of his opponent's back, Nolan wastes little time in getting to potentially fight-ending positions and submissions.
Ziam's last loss may have come by way of rear-naked choke, but the French-born fighter has made clear strides since then. Aside from many fighters and teams from Ziam's country of France showing massive improvements in recent years, "The Smile Killer" has also ventured stateside for some of his training camps, working everywhere from Kill Cliff FC to ONX Labs (training with the likes of Kamaru Usman and Justin Gaethje).
As pointed out by Jack Slack in the video linked above, Ziam has grown quite partial to high-crotch takedown variations that he can transition to and from inside the clinch.
Already a skilled Muay Thai technician, Ziam offers a plethora of threats in closed quarters that range from crushing knees to devastating elbows. And despite officially standing at 2-2 opposite UFC-level southpaws, Ziam has actually looked good when striking in open-stance affairs (as his losses were related to grappling and surrendering control time).
🧵Fares Ziam, who faces Tom Nolan at #UFCVegas118, is 2-2 against UFC-level lefties (W: Puelles, Sadykhov; L: Madge, McKinney)
Ziam will actually jab and use his lead hand in conjunction with low kicks in open-stance affairs but seems to prefer countering. #TheSouthpawReportpic.twitter.com/VNUGLEpN87
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) June 5, 2026
Ziam vs. Nolan Pick, Prediction
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the French fighter, listing Ziam -333 and Nolan +250 as of this writing. Although north of 3-1 odds can feel slightly wide to some, I believe that Ziam is more deserving than others as far as the steep betting spreads that exist on this card go.
Nolan seems like a great guy who will put on some fun fights in the UFC, but I've never been sold on his athletic ceiling or staying power (hence successfully fading him against Nikolas Motta given the inflated odds that Nolan's usually on the right side of).
I'm also not sure that Nolan – despite having a higher jiu-jitsu rank on paper – will be able to get to any of his favored positions if Ziam has the superior MMA wrestling skills like I suspect he does.
Add in the fact that this smaller octagon traditionally forces a higher rate of tieups and exchanges, and I'll take the more proven product and skilled clinch fighter to find a finish on a hittable and hurtable Nolan.
Ziam's money line is probably best used as a parlay piece given the various potential outcomes, but I believe that the height parity and fighting terrain will provide the volatility needed for a finish.
I also like Ziam to go over 1.5 takedowns at even money via DraftKings, as I suspect that will hit at a decent rate regardless of the fight's outcome.
Dan's Pick: Fares Ziam Inside the Distance +132 (BetRivers)
