Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber, Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 107

On Saturday, the UFC returns to The Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for an 11-fight card, featuring a main event in the women's flyweight division between No. 4 contender Erin Blanchfield and No. 5-ranked Maycee Barber.

Check out my Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber predictions, picks, and odds for UFC Vegas 107 on Saturday, May 31.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber Odds, Prediction

The 26-year-old Blanchfield enters her third consecutive main event with a 7-1 promotional record, earning a decision against Rose Namajunas last November, successfully rebounding from a title eliminator loss against Manon Fiorot.

Barber, 27, enters on a six-fight winning streak, with a 9-2 promotional record. She tore her ACL in a 2020 loss against Roxanne Modafferi and lost her comeback fight just 11 months later against future champion Alexa Grasso. However, her athleticism has returned, and her skillset has improved in the five years since that injury. Still, she has never been tested in a five-round fight.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 107 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these flyweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (9:00 p.m. PT) on ESPN.

Here's my Blanchfield vs. Barber prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Maycee Barber is the better athlete and owns a potentially crucial physicality edge over Erin Blanchfield; a central question surrounding this matchup is whether she can sustain her aggression and pace into the championship rounds.

Barber's momentum-building style has worked well in three-round fights, with Barber typically securing the second and third rounds after pacing opponents early, but that may not translate as well to a five-round fight, while being forced to defend takedowns too.

Moreover, Barber missed weight on Friday by 1.5 pounds, and refused to cut further. A bad weight cut might already compromise her stamina, but refusing to cut further may have saved her from a potentially disastrous performance in the latter half of this fight.

Blanchfield isn't a particularly effective wrestler (landing 14 of 44 attempts, 32% accuracy). Still, she is one of the better control jiu-jitsu practitioners in the division, spending 96% of her UFC grappling time in control positions, compared to 39% for Barber. Moreover, Barber has shown suspect takedown defense (denied 12 of 24 attempts) despite training at Team Alpha Male – a wrestling-oriented camp – for the past five years, and little urgency getting off of her back.

I'd expect Blanchfield to land at least a couple of takedowns – as she did against Rose Namajunas (landed two of eight; 8:54 control); but she might only find success grappling either early, when both women are dry, or late, if Barber tires after ramping up her pressure in the middle rounds.

Barber carries more power on the feet and owns a slight advantage in distance striking efficiency (+0.2 to -0.1 per minute). Still, Blanchfield is accustomed to fighting at a higher pace (lands 6.7 per minute at distance, compared to 4.4 for Barber), has fought against a higher level of competition, and showed excellent durability in her loss to Fiorot.

Blanchfield showed improved distance striking in her win against Rose Namajunas (103-91), but I was equally impressed by Barber's performance against Katlyn Cerminara (née Chookagian) – where she matched a high-level gatekeeper at range (44-43) on 16 fewer attempts; while mixing in damage from the clinch and completing four takedowns (4:45 to 2:52 control time).

Despite showing improved offensive grappling, Barber has holes defensively, and Blanchfield is capable of winning a boring, control-based decision by consistently landing takedowns and controlling Barber from top position.

However, if Barber can scramble out from those positions, her superior physicality and tenacity could make a difference with the judges, particularly as her pace increases in the middle rounds – and if she can sustain that level into the back half of the fight.

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Blanchfield vs. Barber Prediction

I projected Erin Blanchfield north of a 70% favorite (-240, 70.5% implied) in this matchup, and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline.

I would need prices closer to -220 on Blanchfield or +260 on Barber to consider placing a wager on either side of the pre-fight moneyline.

I do project value on the Over, or Goes to Decision prop – setting those odds at -292 (74.5% implied) compared to listed odds of -200 (66.7% implied).

On average, three-round women's flyweight bouts go to decision 68% of the time – but main events between flyweights (which self-select for more durable fighters) have seen the scorecards at a 72% clip; and neither Blanchfield nor Barber has been finished in their professional or amateur careers (33 total fights).

You can consider betting the fight goes to decision prop up to around -265 (72.6% implied) – at roughly a two percent edge compared to my projected line.

Alternatively, or in addition, I show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision; projecting Blanchfield at -115 (listed +104) and Barber at +378 (listed +450).

I was much more inclined to play Barber's decision prop before Friday's weight miss, but I might stick with the GTD prop after her issue on the scales.

Sean's Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (-185 at Caesars)