Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez Odds
| Blanchfield Odds | -250 |
| Cortez Odds | +205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-445/+310) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Erin Blanchfield vs. Tracy Cortez prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
We have a rematch more than six years in the making between Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez on the UFC 322 undercard. Cortez won a close — and controversial — split decision over the then 19-year-old Blanchfield in 2019 for the Invicta promotion, and both women have just one loss in the ensuing half dozen years.
Oddsmakers don't think history will repeat itself here, as Blanchfield is a -250 favorite. Do they have it right, or are they overlooking the previous meeting between these two top-ten flyweights?
Here's my Blanchfield vs. Cortez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Blanchfield | Cortez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-2 | 12-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:07 | 16:15 |
| Height | 5'4" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/4/1999 | 12/10/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.24 | 3.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.21 | 2.84 |
| SS Defense | 59% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.86 | 2.19 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 47% |
| TD Def | 80% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.3 |
One of the biggest factors in this line so heavily favoring the loser of the first matchup is the age of both women when they first met. Tracy Cortez was already near her physical prime at 25, while Blanchfield was just 19 during that fight.
Watching that fight back, it's easy to see the physical development made by Blanchfield. She looked like a typical teenage girl back then, not the powerful professional athlete she is now. Her jiu-jitsu skills were already apparent in that early stage of her career, though.
Tracy Cortez took Blanchfield down partway through the first round, but then spent the rest of that frame defending an arm bar. That story repeated itself in various ways throughout the contest, with Cortez using her physical strength and wrestling to dominate positions, while Blanchfield attacked with submissions. That probably explains the judges being split, as weighing submission attacks against positional control is an inexact science.
Of course, that was a long time ago, and both women have made huge improvements since then. Cortez still relies heavily on her wrestling, with multiple takedowns landed in five of her six UFC wins, as well as her loss to Rose Namajunas. That was an extremely short-notice five-round fight for Cortez, and she even had to cut her hair to make weight. Surprisingly, the only round she won unanimously in that fight was the final, which highlights her excellent cardio.
Blanchfield's last fight was her own five-round bout against Namajunas. Blanchfield won that fight with an interesting game plan, essentially taking the first two rounds off before turning up the intensity for the final three frames. It worked, but it was a risky strategy.
On the plus side, Blanchfield won the fourth round of that fight without landing a single takedown, outstriking "Thug Rose" 40-25 on the feet. That showed a huge step forward in Blanchfield's striking, after previously relying almost exclusively on grappling.
Assuming she's continued to improve in her year out of competition, Blanchfield should have the striking edge here. While she's not particularly flashy or technical, she's a bit bigger and stronger, and throws with more volume than Cortez. Grappling dynamics probably decide this fight, but getting the better of a standup-heavy round could also prove decisive.
While both women have leveled up their grappling, I'm expecting a similar dynamic as the first fight. Cortez remains the better wrestler, but isn't necessarily safe from top position. Blanchfield might struggle to get takedowns, but would be able to do plenty of damage from top position should she find herself there. However, that still creates some potentially tough-to-judge rounds. Cortez fending off sweeps and submissions from top control, or Blanchfield trying and failing to get takedowns in a round with little other activity, could both lead to some split scorecards.
Blanchfield vs. Cortez Pick, Prediction
While I view Blanchfield as deserving of her moneyline price due to all of the improvements she's made since losing to Cortez, there's one factor that scares me just a bit. Counting her fight against Maycee Barber, which was scrapped at the last minute, Blanchfield has previously competed in or been scheduled for three consecutive five-round fights.
In each of the two that actually took place, she started very slowly. She was able to make the comeback against Rose Namajunas, but never got things going against Manon Fiorot. Coupled with more than a year of inactivity, it wouldn't surprise me to see another tepid beginning from the hometown fighter.
Plus, some elements could lead to rounds being close calls. Putting those factors together makes Cortez's -3.5 point spread bet at -155 on DraftKings stand out. She could cover that bet by winning the first round, or with some questionable judging throughout the fight.
Assuming Cortez wins Round 1, I'll also attempt to thread the needle by live-betting Blanchfield at (presumably) a better price. If all goes well, "Cold Blooded" picks up a 29-28 victory and both tickets cash.
Billy's Pick: Cortez +3.5 (-155) | Blanchfield Live After Round 1
