Check out my Heili Alateng vs Juan Diaz prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Heili Alateng vs Juan Diaz Odds
| Alateng Odds | +320 |
| Diaz Odds | -410 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-215 / +165) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Alateng vs. Diaz pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Alateng vs. Diaz Pick, Prediction
Alateng accepted this fight on short notice in place of Adrian Yanez, coming off a controversial split-decision win over John Castaneda in September.
"The Mongolian Knight" has been outlanded by eight of his 10 UFC opponents (-2.3 strike differential per minute), but he's extremely durable and difficult to finish; nine of his 10 UFC fights have gone the distance (five wins, two splits), and he's never been stopped in the promotion. He also has solid takedown defense (75%). Still, Juan Diaz is the bigger man (3" taller, 3" reach), 6.5 years younger, well-rounded, and he submitted Malcolm Wellmaker in Round 2 of his dominant UFC debut in May as a +190 underdog.
The market has moved roughly three percent toward Diaz (-333 at open, to -425 as of writing). I projected him at -385, in between the opening and current numbers, and I don't show enough of an edge on the distance prop (projected -188, listed -185) with that number climbing too. Still, I do show slight value combining the market movement on both Diaz and the distance prop with Diaz by decision (projected -115, listed +100), and I would take that prop small to -110.
Zerillo's Picks: Juan Diaz wins by Decision (+100, 0.25u); bet to -110
