Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 124, Saturday, November 7

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Apex for a 14-fight card featuring a heavyweight main event between No. 8 contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta and No. 12-ranked Johnny Walker. The fight came together on short notice, replacing the originally scheduled bout between Gabriel Bonfim and Sean Brady.

Walker, who competed regionally at both heavyweight and light heavyweight, won his UFC heavyweight debut with a knockout over Mick Parkin on October 3. Saturday's matchup is just his second heavyweight fight since 2018. Walker had a 9-7 record in the UFC's light heavyweight division, going 1-3 in main events or five-round fights.

Cortes-Acosta enters on a two-fight losing streak (losses against Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov), dropping his promotional record to 10-4. Saturday's bout will mark his first career main event or five-round fight.

Below, you can find my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 124 Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these heavyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:45 p.m. ET (7:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.

Check out my Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker pick and prediction for UFC Vegas 124 on Saturday, November 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker Odds

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Walker is the bigger man (2" taller, 4" reach advantage), but Cortes-Acosta is the more natural heavyweight and hit the scales 23 pounds heavier than Walker on Friday.

Walker's athleticism, mobility, and explosiveness set him apart from other fighters in the 205-pound division. While we only got a limited sample of Walker against Parkin, his athleticism seemed somewhat muted with the added poundage on his typically long, lean frame.

Walker is the better kicker in the fight, and he can use his length to land low kicks at range to slow Waldo's movement. Still, it will be more difficult to maintain distance in the APEX cage, as opposed to a regular 30-foot octagon, and Cortes-Acosta should have more success blitzing forward and landing punches against a chinny opponent with poor striking defense (45% career).

Waldo has average-to-below-average power for the heavyweight division, but he maintains a decent pace (5.2 to 3.6 landed per minute) with better efficiency (+1.2 to +0.6 per minute) while landing more head strikes than Walker. And "Salsa Boy" is also the more durable athlete in this matchup by a wide margin.

On the feet, Walker needs to take out Cortes-Acosta's base with low kicks; Waldo was left limping in his losses against Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Alexander Volkov, and in wins over Jared Vanderaa and Serghei Spivac. Or he can try to grapple his opponent; Walker has landed only one takedown in the UFC, but he's an underrated submission grappler, and Cortes-Acosta, a former professional baseball player, has striking that is light-years ahead of his defensive grappling.

Walker struggles when pressured with punch combinations, and Cortes-Acosta should be able to land on blitzes inside the smaller APEX cage. The lingering question is whether Walker's move up to heavyweight — without cutting weight — helps his durability to survive those exchanges.

In a full-size cage, I'd give more credence to the Walker side; he's become far more patient and composed throughout his career, and a low-tempo, outside kickboxing style would play well against this type of opponent if he had room to move outside the black line. Still, with space becoming compressed and action getting forced inside the APEX octagon, it seems a matter of time before he eats a clean exchange and crumbles against a head hunter.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker Prediction, Picks

I projected Waldo Cortes-Acosta as a 75% favorite (-302 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline up to -270, at a two percent edge against my projected line.

Alternatively, or in addition, I would bet Cortes-Acosta to win by knockout or KO/TKO (projected -131, listed -110) up to -120, or inside the distance (projected -151, listed -120) up to -140.

I align with the totals and the distance prop on this bout, projecting the fight ending by finish nearly 80% of the time (-395 implied, -450 listed).

I'm slightly interested in Walker to land one takedown (Over 0.5, +400), and if I were betting his side, I would play his submission prop (+1200), regardless of my projection, but I do like Waldo to get the finish in this fight and reassert himself in the heavyweight pecking order.

Sean Zerillo's UFC Vegas 124 Best Bets

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta (bet to -270)
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta wins by TKO/KO -110 (bet to -120) or Inside the Distance (bet to -140)

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