Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 123, Saturday, October 31

Check out my Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan prediction for UFC Vegas 123 on Saturday, October 31, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Apex for a 12-fight card, featuring a lightweight main event between No. 8 contender Renato Moicano and No. 12 ranked Tom Nolan.

Moicano, 37, will headline a fight night for a third time, coming off a main event win over Chris Duncan in April. Still, he has seen the championship rounds only once in his career: a short-notice loss at UFC 272 against Rafael dos Anjos.

Nolan, 26, could get his first five-round test. The Aussie enters on a five-fight winning streak, with a 6-1 promotional record; his only career loss came to Nikolas Motta via first-round TKO in 2024.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 123Main Event on Saturday night and use those factors to bet on these lightweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. PT) on Saturday evening.

Here's my Moicano vs. Nolan pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Nolan opened as a favorite in this matchup (soft at -170, re-opened near -130), but the current line has him at plus money as of Friday's weigh-ins.

Nolan is the bigger athlete (4" taller) and the younger man (11 years) in this fight, going against a former Featherweight who has shown durability concerns against power punchers.

Moicano is an incredible grappler with world-class jiu-jitsu. Still, he isn't the most adept or strongest wrestler (40% takedown accuracy on 2.1 attempts per five minutes at distance), which can make it hard to impose his style when he cannot secure a body lock. That said, Nolan hasn't shown great takedown defense (58%), and he's been more willing to grapple offensively in his recent bouts; this fight should hit the ground at some point.

Moicano relies on takedowns from the clinch, but it can be difficult to out-grapple a taller opponent up against the fence. If he can get this fight to the ground, however, Moicano excels at advancing to dominant positions — including taking the back of his opponents — and he should have a greater advantage on the ground (62% to 41% control rate) than Nolan has on the feet (+1.1 to +0.7 strike differential per minute at distance).

Still, Nolan may be the better wrestler in this fight (and is likely the stronger athlete, too). If Moicano is unable to hold Nolan down for significant stretches — or find the submission — it's difficult to envision a version of this fight where Nolan doesn't land clean on Moicano at some point and hurt him. When Moicano can't land takedowns early (in his fights against RDA, Jalin Turner, and Rafael dos Anjos, for instance), he gets knocked down or bloodied.

I do think Nolan — who is also a black belt in jiu-jitsu — has the wherewithal to survive on bottom if he does get taken down. And even if he loses the first round, I'd consider betting on him in the live market (provided that Moicano doesn't get an early back-take with ease). However, Nolan also tends to give up his back when scrambling to his feet, which could put him in treacherous positions against a world-class jiu-jitsu practitioner.

Nolan doesn't have the best chin either — he's been hurt or knocked down in several UFC bouts; still, Moicano has minimal power, landing just two knockdowns in his UFC career, and failing to record a knockout from standing strikes.

Nolan also hasn't faced many proactive grapplers, but Moicano also hasn't faced many athletic, powerful strikers either. Nolan's dynamism could also work against him, though; he likes to deploy spinning and flying attacks as part of his arsenal, but using that explosiveness can leave him off-balance and unable to defend against reactionary takedown attempts.

Moicano vs. Nolan Prediction, Picks

I projected Tom Nolan as a very slight underdog in this matchup (49%, +104 implied odds) and I would bet his moneyline at +105 or better.

I see some, but maybe not enough, value in the totals, distance, decision, and winning method props.

I expect this bout to end by finish nearly 73% of the time (-256 implied odds). I'd lean toward the Goes to Decision or Distance Prop (listed +300) and either Nolan by KO/TKO (projected +228, listed +230) or Moicano by decision (projected +532, listed +600) as winning methods. Still, I'm not sure there is enough of an edge in either market to make those bets actionable.

I would take Nolan small pre-fight, and look to jump in with a live wager anytime after Round 1; assuming, again, that Moicano doesn't get an easy back take in the first five minutes.

Sean Zerillo's UFC Vegas 123 Best Bets

• Tom Nolan (bet to +105)
• Tom Nolan Live after Round 1

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