The UFC's annual trip to Madison Square Garden is upon us, with the semi-traditional heavyweight title fight that often leads the MSG card. This time that's Cirly Gane vs. Josh Hokit, which follows a bantamweight title between Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes. The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with a 9:00 p.m. main card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 334 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 334 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Kayla Harrison (-192) vs. Amanda Nunes (+160)
After originally being set to meet in January on the first numbered event of the year, Kayla Harrison (or "Kayla Harris" as the president calls her) and Amanda Nunes are now booked for one of the year's final events. This will be the first fight for Nunes in almost three and a half years, after the greatest female fighter of all time walked away from the sport in large part due to lack of competition at 135lbs.
Kayla Harrison fixed that when she came to the UFC, winning the title in just her third fight for the promotion. She's a two-time Judo gold medalist and two-time PFL tournament champion at 155lbs, and could make a case for taking Nunes' "GOAT" status with a dominant win on Saturday.
It's a tough fight to break down, since Nunes has been off for so long, and Harrison is recovering from neck surgery early this year. My read is that the postponement of this fight by ten months probably benefits Nunes. I'm not sure how long she was back training before the initial fight date, and now has had at least a year to live the life of a fighter again. Plus, it's hard to say how long Harrison has been able to train at full strength since her surgery, and she's also had to endure a brutal weight cut in order to make the bantamweight limit.
Stylistically, I also like how this sets up for Nunes. She's the much better striker, and while Harrison should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, I'm not sure she'll fare much better on the mat. Harrison's biggest edge will be her size, but that could become an impediment if this fight makes it to championship rounds. We've never seen Harrison go five rounds at bantamweight, and she lost rounds four and five after taking a 2-1 lead into the championship rounds the last time she went 25 minutes at lightweight.
Plus, we're getting effectively the same line on this bout as we did in January, despite one of the participants having neck surgery in the interim. Fundamentally, that's pretty obviously wrong, making Nunes a solid value. BetMGM has the best line on the underdog at +165, but I'm fine with the +160 at DraftKings as well.
Verdict: Nunes Undervalued
Samuel Sanches (-112) vs. Evan Elder (-108)
We now move to the first fight of the night, a lightweight scrap between Evan Elder, who is 3-2 in the UFC, and Samuel Sanches making his debut. Elder has been out of action for more than 18 months, while Sanches fought on the Contender Series last September and has been inactive since, making this a weird pairing of fighters we haven't seen in some time.
Both men withdrew from bouts earlier this year due to injuries, with Sanches scheduled to fight in May and Elder in September. The more recent withdrawal is concerning, though, especially for the fighter with the longer layoff. Is Elder truly healthy, or rushing his return because he needs to get a paycheck?
Plus, Sanches is the more talented, dynamic, and younger fighter. He finished a tough opponent on the Contender Series, with nine stoppages in 11 pro wins. Elder has the UFC experience, but his wins have been over fighters with a combined 3-9 record, and two of those he needed decisions to get it done.
More importantly than that, the line has been consistently moving to the Brazilian, who opened as a slight underdog but is now favored by as much as -120 in some spots. With more than 70% of Tapology Predictions going to Sanches, my guess is the line movement continues. BetMGM once again has the best line at -105, but I'd take him down to -110.
Verdict: Sanches Undervalued
