Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba Odds
| Suarez Odds | -205 |
| Jandiroba Odds | +170 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-375 / +270) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 124 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 124 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The co-headliner in Las Vegas features a Top 5 strawweight showdown between former title challengers, Tatiana Suarez and Virna Jandiroba.Suarez, who challenged for Zhang Weili's title back in 2025, has since rebounded with two wins in a row opposite Amanda Lemos and Lupita Godinez.
Whereas Jandiroba, who ended up on the wrong end of a competitive decision against Mackenzie Dern for the vacant belt, was able to bounce back with a dominant win over Tabatha Ricci earlier this year. The division is still fairly wide open, so this bout could determine the challenger for the strawweight title.
Here's my Suarez vs. Jandiroba pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Suarez | Jandiroba | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-1 | 23-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:17 | 13:18 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 64" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/19/1990 | 5/30/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.86 | 2.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 60% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.63 | 2.86 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.52 | 3.13 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 39% |
| TD Def | 57% | 72% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.4 |
From a stylistic perspective, this fight features two incredibly strong grapplers who go about their games in different ways.
Suarez, who was a decorated freestyle wrestler, stormed onto the UFC stage a decade ago and was quickly marked for greatness by many.
Referred to as "the female Khabib," Suarez demonstrated a ruthless and relentless approach to her pressure grappling game. Akin to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Suarez often fails on her first shots but does a good job of parlaying the contact into chain wrestling opportunities.
Whether Suarez is chaining to a single leg or looking for a snapdown, seldom does she seem at a loss for ideas in this space. And when "The Ultimate Fighter" winner grounds her foes, Suarez usually wastes little time when it comes to landing punishing punches and elbows that help encourage the submission openings she's searching for.
Suarez has also reportedly been focusing a lot more on her boxing in her last couple of camps, which could come in handy opposite a fellow submission grappler in Jandiroba.
Despite Jandiroba's janky striking game not getting nearly the credit it deserves, there's no mistaking where the Brazilian butters her bread.
The Demian Maia of the women's divisions, Jandiroba is an accoladed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has developed a deceptively flexible and effective approach to her MMA grappling.
Not only has Jandiroba made marked efforts to improve upon her wrestling offense, but "Cacara" will smartly use the same feints and load-ups for her strikes to seamlessly set up and disguise her takedown shots – something that was on full display in her last fight. And when Jandiroba fails on an initial attempt, she's proven that she has a deep bag of tricks she can pull from for future options.
Although I'm not a fan of pulling guard in 2026, Jandiroba, akin to Maia, is incredibly tactical when it comes to when and how she does it.
Aside from having an elite-level armbar process from full guard, Jandiroba primarily utilizes the guard position to create scrambles and wrestle-up opportunities in order to get back on top. And once Jandiroba can establish positive positions, she's quick and slick about transitioning to rear mounts once they become available.
Suarez vs. Jandiroba Prediction, Picks
The oddsmakers and the public favor the American fighter, listing Suarez -210 and Jandiroba +168 as of this writing.
Apologies for the constant comparisons to older fighters, but this fight feels like Ben Askren vs. Demian Maia.
Not only is Suarez the best wrestler that Jandiroba has faced, but Jandiroba is probably the best submission grappler that Suarez has fought. Both fighters also have positive records in the Apex, but I suspect that the fighting terrain of the small cage could favor Jandiroba – especially if Suarez is looking to come in and strike this Saturday.
Don't get me wrong: I've been a big fan of Suarez, who trains out of my gym, for a long time. And though I can understand her being the betting favorite in this spot, this fight feels way more competitive than it's being credited for.
Not only has Suarez seldom faced fighters who are even attempting takedowns on her, but her official takedown defense stats are actually worse than what's listed online when you watch the tape (example No. 2,467 of why I warn people not to base their analysis on the faulty well of information that is MMA statistics).
I've been doing this for well over a decade now, and not a week goes by where I don't run across outright false statistics – and that was the case here for Suarez, who actually sits closer to a 25 percent success rate when it comes to defending takedowns.
Moreover, as Suarez's competition level has risen, we've seen her, in both victory and defeat, get hit with reversals and sweeps due to the headstrong nature of her style. Against an elite grappler like Jandiroba who constantly uses all four of her limbs in symphony, I could see everything from Suarez's arms to her weight distribution being taxed this Saturday.
Add in the fact that Suarez's wrestling has looked to have regressed, and I suspect that she's closer to a Sara McMann career arc than she is to a career resurgence. Jandiroba may also be operating in past-prime territory at 38 years old, but the Brazilian's style – aside from aging much better than Suarez's – was never reliant on athleticism or an aura of invincibility.
This is one of many clear dog or pass spots on the card, and I believe that Jandiroba's money line is worth playing. But with the majority of this space seldom sharing my enthusiasm for the unassuming Brazilian, I'll officially tip out her points prop (which is probably the safest bet in this fight since I don't see Suarez finishing someone like Jandiroba).
Dan's Picks: Virna Jandiroba +3.5 points -135 (DraftKings)Â
