Read our UFC Vegas 124 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on the matches below.
UFC Vegas 124 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 124 Prop Projections
Murtazali Magomedov vs. Jose Delano
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:00 p.m. ET
Potentially the best fight on the UFC Vegas 124 card is buried on the prelims, as unbeaten Kyrgyzstani Murtazali "The Highlight" Magomedov faces talented Brazilian Jose Delano.
Both fighters are 2-0 under the promotional banner, including a contract-earning win on the Contender Series, but Magomedov has finished his professional fights in style with a 100% finish rate, while Delano projects as more of a well-rounded, high-volume action fighter at the UFC level, with a high floor in any matchup.
Magomedov is the bigger man, the better wrestler, and the more explosive athlete, with a higher championship ceiling than Delano. You can't fault him for finishing each opponent, and he's seen his bouts extend into the second and third rounds, but his effectiveness in a high-paced 15-minute war against a durable opponent who can counter-grapple remains unproven; whether he can overcome adversity will determine how far he goes in this sport.
Delano, who resists opponents early and increases his pace as his fights extend, may be exactly the type of opponent to counter Magomedov's style. Still, I'd expect Magomedov to get out to a lead in this fight, and I think he's the clear pre-fight side at pick'em odds; at worst, I'd anticipate you could find a better live price on Delano during or after the opening round.
I projected Magomedov as a 55% favorite (-122 implied odds), and I would bet his moneyline up to -110. If he can't consolidate or maintain takedowns in the opening round, however, I would consider looking for a live exit on Delano; he should have more success the longer the fight goes.
Pick: Murtazali Magomedov +48 cents (Polymarket)Â
Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
It feels like the UFC is looking for a specific outcome in this fight, which pairs 24-year-old, 10-1 prospect Elijah Smith with Davey Grant, who turns 41 next month. Smith is 3-0 in the UFC already, and has plenty of potential to make a run at a title at some point in the next decade.
Grant is an appropriate step up in competition for Smith, whose three wins have come against fighters with a combined 7-12 record in the UFC. Grant is 9-7 in the promotion, dating back to 2013. He's a semi-recognizable name with a winning UFC record — but clearly well past his prime.
The scrappy Grant has been finished in four of his seven losses, including his most recent against Charles Jourdain. He was dropped by the light-hitting Jourdain, becoming the only opponent Jourdain has knocked down in his last dozen fights, before being tapped with a guillotine. The powerful Smith dropped SuYoung Yoo in his last fight, before also finishing with a choke on the ground.
Given the massive gaps in athleticism, durability, and power between Smith and Grant, the younger man should be able to replicate something similar here. He's also the better grappler of the pair — Grant hasn't landed a takedown in any of his last eight fights — so there's not a real path for Grant to play it safe and kill clock in this one.
I'm not confident that Smith finishes this fight with strikes or opts for a club-and-sub, so rather than get cute on a specific method I'm taking Smith to win inside the distance and cover all the bases. The best odds are +125 at BetRivers, but I'd take anything at +100 or better.
Pick: Smith Inside the Distance +125 (BetRivers)
