Check out my Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui prediction for UFC 334 on Saturday, November 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui Odds
| Borrlaho Odds | -162 |
| Belgaroui Odds | +136 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-238 / +180) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 334 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 334 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The UFC 334 featured fight is a fun middleweight scrap between "Fighting Nerds" team captain Caio Borralho and former kickboxer Yousri Belgaroui. Borralho's title aspirations suffered a setback in his loss to Nassourdine Imavov, but the middleweight division is wide open enough that a win could get him back on track, while Belgaroui faces a ranked opponent for the first time in his career.
Here's my Borralho vs. Belgaroui pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Borralho | Belgaroui | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-2 | 11-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:09 | 11:19 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 79" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/16/1993 | 6/02/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.47 | 6.44 |
| SS Accuracy | 56% | 63% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.61 | 2.28 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 63% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.25 | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 100% |
| TD Def | 76% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
This is one of the harder fights to break down from a tape perspective for me in quite some time. The well-rounded Borralho has never really fought someone like Belgaroui, a dedicated striker. The closest comparison was probably Armen Petrosyan, but that was a different dynamic with Yousri Belgaroui having a whopping eight inches more reach than Petrosyan. In fact, Borralho's last fight came against the exact opposite style of opponent in Renier de Ridder.
In that fight, Borralho utilized his kicks far less than in most matchups, while also primarily fighting with his hands down in order to defend takedowns, showing a complete lack of respect for de Ridder's striking. That would obviously be a terrible plan against Belgaroui, but Borralho is one of the sport's smartest fighters and will certainly come in well prepared for the specific challenges he faces this time.
On the Belgaroui side, this is a massive step up in competition. His last fight came against Djorden Santos, so being thrown in there with a contender like Borralho is a big adjustment. Of course, he's been in there with high-level opponents — including his now-teammate Alex Pereira — in kickboxing. He faced Pereira thrice (winning the first) and Israel Adesanya once during his long career.
In summary, how both fighters respond to this matchup is an open question. Borralho has looked to grapple offensively in some previous matchups, but is fairly opportunistic with his attempts. He's never been this out-gunned on the feet, though, and will likely be more proactive here, as he was against Petrosyan (four of five on takedowns with over ten minutes of control time).
Belgaroui has been a strong defensive grappler in all of his appearances since the Contender Series. His first line of defense is range, using his 6'6" height and 79" reach to maintain distance from his opponents, forcing them to shoot from far enough away that Belgaroui can react. His height makes clinch takedowns difficult, as it's very difficult for shorter fighters to lift him far enough off the ground that he can't keep at least one leg down. He's also an aggressive calf kicker, and limiting his opponent's ability to drive off the front leg also makes takedowns harder.
That could be especially problematic for Borralho, who absorbed 26 leg kicks in his fight against Petrosyan, despite controlling more than ten minutes of the fight in grappling range. That means Petrosyan landed more than five per minute spent at distnace. With Belgaroui's reach, he has a shot at being able to match that output.
More important than his takedown defense is his ability to escape when he is taken down. Training with Pereira under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira is the perfect combination for the former kickboxer. Teixeira has already taught one former striker how to transition to MMA, and Pereira can help him implement those tools. Belgaroui is very comfortable going to turtle and using a "quad pod" defense to shake opponents over the top if they attempt to take his back, while simply standing up if they trail behind his hips:
This is another technique made more effective by his physical attributes, as the quad pod disrupts potential back takes more based on how high Belgaroui can elevate his hips. Plus, Belgaroui constantly strikes through those positions, not allowing his opponents to make it a pure wrestling match.
What makes this matchup so intriguing is Borralho's ability to mix the martial arts. Unlike past opponents like Malik and Azamat Bekoev, Borralho is competent enough on the feet to at least keep Belgaroui honest defensively, which should give him a better shot at securing takedowns. He's also a BJJ black belt (unlike Bekoev and Malik) and much more capable of turning takedowns into offense — see his ground and pound against de Ridder as an example.
We've never really seen Belgaroui forced into extended grappling exchanges, which is mostly a testament to his escapes, but I do have my concerns about how he will fare if and when Borralho can get him flat on his back.
Borralho vs. Belgaroui Pick, Prediction
Despite being the older man, there's still probably more room for growth from Belgaroui, who has only been a full time MMA fighter since 2022. That's enough for me to lean his way from a moneyline perspective, but I think we can do better.
The fight to end inside the distance is +154 at FanDuel, better odds than Belgaroui's moneyline anywhere. Considering he's finished every one of his pro wins, those bets are at least somewhat correlated — while also giving us an out if Borralho can finish the underdog on the ground. If this fight stays standing for all 15 minutes, I'm fairly confident Belgaroui will be able to find a way to finish it, while if he's taken down multiple times, he likely won't win anyway.
The other bet I like on this fight is for a point to be deducted, which remains +2000 on DraftKings and BetMGM. Borralho was warned multiple times for fence grabs in his fight against de Ridder, and also traded fouls with Imavov in his prior fight. Plus, Belgaroui could get desperate if he's fending off takedowns/grappling.
With UFC ref's recent enthusiasm for actually enforcing the rules, this is another fight I want to target (alongside this weekend's main event).
Billy's Picks: Fight Ends Inside the Distance +154 (FanDuel) | Point to be Deducted +2000 (DraftKings)
