Check out the Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Baraniewski vs. Aslan pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Baraniewski
Aslan
Record
6-0-0
14-3-0
Avg. Fight Time
0:20
6:31
Height
6'0"
6'3"
Weight (pounds)
205 lbs.
205 lbs.
Reach (inches)
73"
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
Date of birth
11/20/1998
4/23/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min
12.00
5.09
SS Accuracy
66%
47%
SS Absorbed Per Min
6.00
3.47
SS Defense
33%
59%
Take Down Avg
0.00
0.00
TD Acc
0%
0%
TD Def
0%
86%
Submission Avg
0.0
0.0
Baraniewski vs. Aslan Pick, Prediction
Iwo Baraniewski will make his UFC debut as a relatively comfortable favorite against Ibo Aslan, following a quick knockout win on Contender Series, where he closed as high as +230 against Mahamed Aly.
Aslan is the bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach advantage). He has nearly three times Baraniewski's professional experience, but the Polish fighter has an extensive 20-fight amateur career, where he proved he's more than just a first-round finisher.
He's the more well-rounded fighter than Aslan. He likely has the better gas tank, too — Ibo has shown cardio concerns, never won a decision in MMA, and seemed wholly disinterested in his last fight against Billy Elekana.
I don't project value on either side of the moneyline. Still, I do show an edge on the Over 1.5 Rounds (+160) and the fight to reach a decision (projected +360, listed +430) with correlated value on Baraniewski to win by decision (projected +665, listed +850); consider placing those bets down to +150, +400, and +725, respectively.
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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