Read for a Jacqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.
Jacqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Odds
| Amorim Odds | -450 |
| Inuoe Odds | +350 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-105 / -135) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi |
| Bout Time | 10:00 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 321 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's my Amorim vs. Mizuki pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Amorim | Mizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 10-1-0 | 15-6-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:07 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 115 lbs. | 115 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/24/1995 | 8/19/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.68 | 4.56 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.43 | 5.62 |
| SS Defense | 64% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.26 | 0.33 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 14% |
| TD Def | 0% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 4.8 | 0.0 |
Amorim vs. Mizuki Pick, Prediction
Jaqueline Amorim is a dangerous submission grappler who trains full-time at American Top Team – a gym that will help her to refine her striking technique (and add calf kicks) as she progresses upward in the 115-pound division She's been far more active than her opponent – with three UFC wins since Mizuki Inoue's most recent appearance – and seemingly has early finishing upside in this matchup; Amorim by Round 1 Submission (+380) is the likeliest winning method.
Still, I view Mizuki as the slight value side of this matchup – projected her moneyline closer to +330 (listed odds as +340) However, I expect to find a better number on the Japanese fighter after Round 1 given the stylistic matchup, and she could be dealing with some cage rust, stepping back into the octagon for just the second time since August of 2020, following a lengthy layoff since defeating Hanah Goldy in September of 2023.
Amorim is often a fast starter – finishing each of her nine career wins inside the distance, including seven in the first round and eight under the 1.5 round mark; but she has a suspect gas tank, losing the final ten minutes of her lone career decision against Sam Hughes.
As a result, look for Mizuki to rally if she can fend off the early submission attempts and begin to deny takedowns; even if Amorim's striking has improved, I'd still likely favor Mizuki in a pure kickboxing match.
Depending on the book, I show a slight edge for either fighter to win by decision—projecting Amorim at +243 and Muzki at +538, compared to listed odds as high as +250 and +550, respectively.
Still, given Mizuki's layoff—and the lack of clarity about her current gym or training situation—I'm happy to pass on this matchup pre-fight and wait for her peak live price.
Projection: Amorim (76.6%)
Sean's Pick: Mizuki Live after Round 1
