UFC White House Predictions, Odds, Picks, Previews for Every Fight (June 14)

Sean Zerillo

Senior Betting Analyst

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Updated:

Jun 14, 2026, 11:03 AM EDT

Updated:

Jun 14, 2026, 11:03 AM EDT

UFC White House Predictions, Odds, Picks, Previews for Every Fight (June 14) article feature image

12 min read

Credit:

Amber Searls-Imagn Images. Pictured: Alex Pereira and Illia Topuria.

Check out my UFC White House predictions for every fight on the UFC Freedom 250 card on the White House lawn.

Below, I look at the latest UFC White House odds and break down and predict each bout on tonight's card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.

Let's break it down.

UFC White House Predictions

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value, and after looking at the UFC White House odds, today's event is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC White House odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

UFC White House odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC White House with our DraftKings promo code.

UFC White House Moneyline Projections

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC White House Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter's likelihood of winning by Decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance and for each fighter to win inside the distance.

Picks
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit
Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia

For additional analysis of this bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Steve Garcia is both the bigger man (1" taller, 3" reach advantage) and the better striker than Diego Lopes, a dynamic athlete with significant power and world-class jiu-jitsu.

Lopes has quickly risen to title-contender status in the promotion, but he has rarely proven himself the better fighter in extended contests against UFC-caliber opponents. When the fast finish doesn't materialize, Lopes can struggle to implement his style and win minutes consistently.

Garcia is both the more technically proficient and more voluminous striker. If he can deny takedowns and keep this fight standing, against an elite grappler with questionable offensive wrestling, this should be his fight to lose.

My model makes Garcia a slight favorite in this fight, and I would bet his moneyline at +105.

Additionally, you can bet the fight to go to a decision down to +190, or play Garcia to win by decision to +400.

Bets

Steve Garcia (+135, 0.6u), Caesars; bet to +105

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Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus

My model projects value both on the underdog, Kyle Daukaus, and on this middleweight bout reaching a decision.

Bo Nickal is the better athlete and a far superior wrestler to Kyle Daukaus. Still, Daukaus is the more polished MMA fighter, with better distance-striking numbers and an elite series of front headlock chokes, which has earned him the nickname "The D'arce Knight".

The threat of those chokes could make Nickal cautious about shooting recklessly and could create a relatively slow-paced kickboxing match between a pair of fighters who prefer to grapple.

Daukaus maintains a higher pace (7.2 to 4.4 landed per minute) and has proven to be the slightly more efficient striker than Nickal. Still, at a minimum, I like his ability to compete in this fight and avoid getting finished by Nickal, whose overall game is still a work in progress.

Nickal is a highly popular selection this week, but this fight isn't necessarily a layup; take Daukaus to +210, and either bet the goes-to-decision to +160 or play the Over 1.5 Rounds to -160.

Lastly, consider Daukaus by decision (+900) as a longshot round-robin leg.

Bets

Kyle Daukaus (+265, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to +210
Over 1.5 Rounds (-145, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -160

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Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler

For additional analysis of this bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Dan Tom.

While I don't necessarily project value on either the side or total for this lightweight bout, I do project some prop value on Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO (projected -210, listed -196).

And while that is not a substantial edge, I was able to combine that angle in an inverse-correlated Same Game Parlay with Over 0.5 Rounds at -105.

Ruffy is the bigger man than Michael Chandler (3" taller, 4" reach advantage) and is 10 years younger than his opponent.

Chandler is the better wrestler, and Ruffy has proven to be grappable, but it's highly unlikely that Chandler can maintain a proactive wrestling style for more than 5 to 7 minutes at age 40 without gassing himself out.

Still, Chandler is often a fast starter, and Ruffy, who likes to counter, may let his opponent dictate the pace early before stepping on the gas himself.

Finishes in the first 2.5 minutes of UFC bouts occur just 10.5% of the time (11.8% in lightweight bouts). Even if you bumped Ruffy's chances up to 15%, I'd still make his odds to score a knockout between 2:31 and 14:59 of the fight around -130; take that SGP up to -120.

Bets

SGP: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO & Over 0.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -120

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Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit

For additional analysis of this bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

I believe that Josh Hokit is a future UFC Heavyweight title contender (if not a potential champion), and I will continue to bet him accordingly. Hokit is an elite athlete – a former D-I All-American wrestler and H-Back at Fresno State (who made an NFL practice squad)-, but he is small for the Heavyweight division; Derrick Lewis stands 2" taller, with a 6" reach advantage.

Still, Hokit sacrifices side and power for pace and quickness, overwhelming slower Heavyweights with pressure and volume.

He has a substantial wrestling advantage over Derrick Lewis, who has awful takedown defense (52%) and a limited bottom game, relying on mere overpowering and exploding back to his feet.

Still, Lewis has looked particularly diminished in his recent bouts – after more than 30 fights in the UFC octagon – and this sets up as a smash spot for Hokit, who is 13 years his junior.

It only takes one big punch from Lewis to change the outcome of any fight, but it's difficult to put that implied probability much higher than 10-15% against an opponent more than a decade his junior.

I would parlay Hokit's moneyline to -700, and consider betting his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected -137, listed -110) to -125, or inside the distance (projected -322, listed -250) to -225.

Bets

Parlay (-194, 0.5u), Kalshi; parlay to -700 and -1000 respectively: Josh Hokit & Ilia Topuria
Josh Hokit by KO/TKO (-115, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to -125

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Sean O'Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi

On the Action Network Podcast, I asked my co-host, Billy Ward, who he thought was the UFC's first choice to be Sean O'Malley's opponent on the White House card, and he suggested Bryce Mitchell, who fought and defeated Santiago Luna last week at the Apex.

Aiemann Zahabi is a fighter with minimal fanfare, and there is limited upside for an unheralded Canadian defeating one of the USA's biggest stars in the most public event in the promotion's history. Zhahabi is a well-rounded martial artist and trains under the tutelage of his brother, Fares Zahabi, at Tristar Gym in Montreal, the training camp of my all-time favorite fighter, UFC Hall of Famer Georges St-Pierre.

Still, O'Malley is the bigger man (3" taller, 4" reach advantage), seven years younger, and both the more efficient and voluminous striker (+3.8 to +0.2 differential per minute at distance. The only way to cleanly win minutes against O'Malley is to outgrapple him – and Zahabi has landed just one takedown in ten career UFC bouts.

Still, Zahabi will be competitive in this fight, and I have largely bet against O'Malley since he entered the top 15, but I show value on the favorite here; you can use Suga Sean as a parlay piece to -650.

I also show value on his decision prop (projected +101, listed +110), but I'll save that bet for round-robin tickets.

Bets

Parlay (-204, 0.5u), Kalshi; parlay to -650 and -1000 respectively: Sean O'Malley & Ilia Topuria

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For additional analysis of this bout, check out the full fight preview from my colleague, Billy Ward.

Alex "Poatan" Perieira will attempt to capture UFC gold in a third division, moving up to Heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane, the more efficient distance striker (+3.1 to +1.5 differential per minute at distance) and a superior (though not a particularly proactive) grappler.

Perieira is one of the most popular fighters in the history of the UFC, and I have often found myself having to bet against him, given my market model inputs, which attempt to fade public consensus (Sean O'Malley has been on the fade list for similar reasons, but was not this week).

Gane is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) and the natural Heavyweight, and I do feel that Pereira could and will struggle with cardio in the back half of an extended fight, after continuing to add muscle and weight to his frame (how he ever competed at middleweight is astonishing).

Pereira has more finishing upside, but Gane should be the better minute winner. using superior speed, movement, and defense to force Pereira to chase him around the cage, and if he can mix in a takedown or two (like in his split decision win over Alexander Volkov), he'll look like a clear hindsight favorite.

The market has moved Pereira from underdog to pick'em in this fight, but I would bet Gane on the moneyline to around -125. Moreover, I show an edge on the Frenchman to win by KO/TKO (projected +229, listed +330) or inside the distance (projected +181, listed +250), which you could bet to +250 or +20, respectively.

Bets

Ciryl Gane (-105, 0.5u) at PolyMarket; bet to -125

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For additional information on Sunday's main event and lightweight title bout, make sure to check out my full fight preview.

In short, I projected Ilia Topuria as a 91.5% favorite (-1070 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would utilize his moneyline as a parlay piece to around -1000 (90.9% implied).

I don't project an edge on the total or the distance prop, setting the fight at roughly 89% to end inside the distance (-844 implied odds), compared to a listed spread of +670 for a decision and -1000 for an inside-the-distance finish.

I do show a slight edge on Topuria to win by finish, depending on the book, projecting that prop at -465, compared to the listed odds of -300. Still, I don't show an actionable edge on his individual knockout or submission props, which is a bit unusual to project value on the former but not on either of the latter.

Lastly, I would play Topuria in a Same Game Parlay with the Under 1.5 rounds at plus money, or a juiced Under 2.5 rounds. I found a middle ground, betting that the fight doesn't start in round 3.

I project a near 63% chance that Topuria finishes this fight within the first 10 minutes; bet that SGP to -150 (60% implied).

Sean's Picks: Ilia Topuria (parlay to -1000) | SGP: Ilia Topuria & Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-130 at Caesars)

Premium picks. Less noise.

Track</p> <p><strong>Bets</strong></p> <ul> <li>Ilia Topuria (parlay to -1000)</li> <li>SGP: Ilia Topuria & Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-130, 0.2), Caesars; bet to -150</li> </ul> </div> <div class=

About the Author

Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.

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