Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Odds, Prediction
| Hill Odds | -108 |
| Rountree Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 Rounds (+170/-220) |
| Location | Baku Crystal Hall | Baku, Azerbaijan |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Balu odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Baku with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree predictions, picks and odds for UFC Baku on Saturday, June 21.
The light heavyweight division is suddenly wide open, with Alex Pereira dethroned and likely moving to heavyweight. Now two of his past opponents meet in the main event of UFC Baku, with renewed title hopes to the victor.
Here's my Hill vs. Rountree prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Hill | Rountree | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-3 | 13-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:02 | 8:34 |
| Height | 6'4" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 79" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/19/1991 | 2/26/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.05 | 3.73 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.02 | 4.51 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 0% |
| TD Def | 73% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.1 |
If you're a fan of striking, the UFC Baku main event is for you.
Through 26 combined UFC opportunities, neither Jamahal Hill nor Khalil Rountree have so much as attempted a single takedown. Barring an uncharacteristic change in approach from either of the fighters in their mid-30s, that means we'll have a standup fight.
That's helpful from a handicapping standpoint, as it gives us one less dimension to break down. Whoever can get the better of the striking exchanges almost certainly wins this fight.
Both fighters have big power, with 11 of their 15 UFC wins coming via knockout. They each also have somewhat questionable durability, coming off knockout losses in recent fights.
It's been consecutive knockout losses for Hill, the first to Alex Pereira and the second to Jiri Prochazka. The real durability question mark for Hill surrounds his health, though. He vacated the light heavyweight title due to a ruptured Achillies'tendon, then pulled out of a planned fight with Carlos Ulberg with another knee injury.
This fight was even moved back a few months due to Hill's withdrawal, though it's not clear if it was injury related.
Hill has yet to win a fight since his initial injury, though he fought two championship-level opponents. He also had his moments against Prochazka, winning the second round clearly. He may have gotten overly aggressive in Round 3 after his corner told him he was down two rounds, and he ultimately was caught and finished in the third frame.
Hill is now back with his original striking coach Johnny Grigware, which might allow him to capture some of his past magic. At his best, he's one of the best pure boxers in MMA, using his length and reach to pick opponents apart at distance.
The southpaw fights tall and long, with an excellent jab that he fires from a variety of angles. He runs into trouble at close range, where his upright stance leaves him open to hooks and uppercuts.
The cleaner this fight looks the better it will be for Hill, as he took plenty of damage from Prochazka in wild exchanges.
Whereas Hill is primarily a boxer, Rountree's striking is pure Muay Thai. The positives to that style are his strong kicking game and clinch work. The downside is that he tends to "take turns" on the feet, darting in for singular shots or brief combinations before resetting at range.
That's dangerous against a taller and longer fighter like Hill — or Pereira — especially considering Hill's high-volume attack. I expect Hill to continue throwing on the breaks, rather than letting Rountree reset at range.
Rountree has been fairly durable throughout his UFC career, but he took a brutal beating in the Pereira fight:
We've seen fighters in the past come just short of winning a title but struggle to recover from the damage they took — looking at you Dominick Reyes and Anthony Smith — which is a distinct possibility here.
On the other hand, Rountree landed plenty of shots on Poatan that would likely put Hill away, and he has the power and explosive ability to finish anyone.
Hill vs. Rountree Prediction
The most important dynamic here will be Jamahal Hill's ability to control the range. Both of his UFC losses on the feet came against fighters who matched or exceeded Hill's reach and made a habit of catching Hill when he lunged in on his straight punches.
Hill has a few inches on Rountree here, but that's not a new scenario for "The War Horse." A relatively undersized light heavyweight, Rountree darts into the pocket quickly against taller fighters.
It's scary to trust Hill's footwork given all of the lower body injuries, but given his reunion with his former striking coach, I'm willing to take the chance on his footwork returning to form.
Plus, the line has moved heavily to Hill despite 70% of Tapology predictions coming in on Rountree. That's an indication of which side the sharp money is coming on.
I bet Hill at +110 before the line shifted, but with that gone I'd pivot to Hill to win inside the distance at +175 on DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Jamahal Hill by Finish +175 (DraftKings)
