Check out my Diniz vs. Hines prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28.
Diniz is an experienced kickboxer who will be making his fourth UFC appearance. He lost via TKO (doctor stoppage) last November against veteran Marcin Tybura. Hines steps in for this matchup in place of Justin Tafa. He’s undefeated and will be making his UFC debut. This will be his fourth professional fight of 2025.
Here's my Hines vs. Diniz pick for tonight.
Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 317 Odds
| Diniz Odds | -470 |
| Hines Odds | +360 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-120 / -110) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 317 odds via DraftKings as of Saturday. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code | |
Diniz vs. Hines Pick
Alvin "Goozie" Hines will make his UFC debut on Saturday, filling in on short notice for Justin Tafa, after going 7-0 regionally, including five wins in LFA. Hines is easy to root for, as a full-time union operating engineer in Minnesota who started fighting professionally in 2022.
He'll look to wrestle Jhonata Diniz, a taller and longer kickboxer (2" taller, 5" reach advantage) who has been out-grappled by both Marcin Tybura (controlled for over 70% of their fight) and Austin Lane (controlled for over 60%).
Outside of landing takedowns and consolidating position, however, it's challenging to find a path to victory for Hines in this matchup. I project value on Diniz as a favorite (projected -363, listed -325) and would use him as a parlay piece to -350.
However, Hines has demonstrated excellent durability in his brief MMA career, and I expect him to survive longer into the fight, even if Diniz can keep the fight standing.
The UFC Heavyweight division is significantly weaker than it used to be, and fights within the division have gone to decision north of 50% of the time over the past few years.
I projected this fight to reach a decision one-third of the time (+207 implied), and the betting market is giving us -110 on the Over 1.5 Rounds and +280 on the distance prop; bet those to -125 and +225 respectively.
Alternatively, or in addition, I project value on Diniz to win by decision (projected +299, listed +430) at +325 or better, and I would bet him live after Round 1, assuming Hines lands a takedown and the number on Diniz improves.
Diniz vs. Hines Predictions
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-110, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
- Jhonata Diniz Live after R1
