Read our UFC Vegas 123 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Vegas 123 Moneyline Projections
UFC Vegas 123 Prop Projections
Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden
Dan Tom, Action Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
UFC Vegas 123’s main card features a men’s flyweight fight between Ode Osbourne and Cody Durden that immediately caught my eye.
Aside from the fact that Osbourne and Durden are do-or-die fighters to their core (with over 75 percent of their fights ending inside the distance), both men also reflect each other’s stylistic kryptonite.
Durden, for example, is a dogged wrestler who will chase strike stoppages and submissions alike, whereas Osbourne, the southpaw who struggles with wrestlers, offers the left-sided strikes that have stunned or stopped Durden before.
Durden is officially 1-1 against dedicated, UFC-level southpaws, but the American Top Team product’s lone win over a lefty, Jake Hadley, was not without its issues when you consider that “Custom Made” was almost stopped in the second round (a round that has traditionally been nightmare fuel for Durden).
For that reason, I’ll likely sprinkle my usual exposure on either fading Durden in Round 2 or betting for the bout to end in said round. But as far as my best bet goes, I believe that the Under 2.5 rounds total is way too potent and playable given the kind of action that the smaller octagon encourages.
Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-138, FanDuel)
Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
While Cody Durden is just 1-5 in his past six bouts, and 2-7 in his last nine, I think a matchup against Ode Osbourne — a long and dynamic striker — is stylistically favorable. Osbourne is also 1-5 in his past six bouts (one of those losses was later overturned to a no contest after an opponent tested positive for a banned substance, but that doesn't help you as a bettor), and the loser will almost certainly get the pink slip.
Osbourne is the more explosive and efficient striker at distance (+0.6 to -0.9 differential per minute), but he has struggled with takedown defense (66%) and shown a propensity to get stuck on bottom for long stretches once his fights hit the mat.
Durden is the far better control grappler (73% to 16% control rate), and he proactively pursues takedowns (5.3 per five minutes at distance, 48% accuracy); but while he tends to tire as his fights extend, so does Osbourne, whose power dissipates as his energy wanes.
Durden's only recent wins have come at bantamweight (against Matt Schell and Alessandro Costa), and he hasn't won a flyweight bout since 2023. Still, many of Durden's recent flyweight fights were booked on short notice; his availability has kept him in the promotion through a four-fight losing streak, and he should fare better moving back down to 125 pounds, off of a full training camp.
I projected Durden as a -117 favorite, and I would bet him to around -115.
I also see a slight edge on Durden to win by finish or inside the distance (projected +261, listed +285). You can sprinkle that small on top of the moneyline wager, or consider structuring a bet on Durden to win in Round 2 (+600) or Round 3 (+900).
Pick: Cody Durden (-108, FanDuel)
Jacobe Smith vs. Randy Brown
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Normally, I try to get to at least even, if not plus-money, odds with my best bet on UFC cards, but I'm making an exception this week.
Undefeated prospect and former D1 All-American wrestler Jacobe Smith accepted a short-notice bout against Randy "Rude Boy" Brown to save the UFC Vegas 123 co-main event. Brown was originally booked against Carlos Leal in a much more appropriate matchup for the veteran.
Brown has served as a lower-end gatekeeper at 170 lbs for the past handful of years, with his wins coming against past-their-prime fighters and his losses (outside of a split decision against Bryan Battle) all coming against fighters who were, or shortly would be, ranked. He's also 1-3 over his last four, with his only win coming against a 40-year-old Nicolas Dalby, who dropped Brown in the first round before "Rude Boy" came back in the second.
Brown has power, but not much else, in his favor against Smith. Smith is younger, more athletic, and a more skilled overall fighter, particularly on the ground. He's 4-0 in the UFC with four straight finishes, and fits the profile of fighters who've defeated Brown much more than that of the fighters Brown has beaten.
While the short-notice booking is a bit troublesome, Smith fought a month ago, absorbing just four significant strikes. It's highly probable he's both healthy and in shape for this matchup, where he comes in as a heavy favorite against Brown. I'm fine laying the -265 odds at DraftKings, but also wouldn't mind betting on Smith inside the distance at -160 if laying that much juice is a bridge too far.
Pick: Jacobe Smith (-160, DraftKings)
