Check out the Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal prediction for UFC 320 on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal Odds
| Emmett Odds | +350 |
| Zalal Odds | -450 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250 / +185) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 320 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's my Emmett vs. Zalal pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Emmett | Zalal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-5-0 | 17-5-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:44 | 12:26 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/4/1985 | 9/4/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.75 | 3.07 |
| SS Accuracy | 35% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.46 | 1.80 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 66% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.09 | 2.09 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 30% |
| TD Def | 46% | 59% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.3 |
Emmett vs. Zalal Pick, Prediction
I have bet Youssef Zalal to finish each of his past four fights (all wins) since returning to the UFC for a second stint in March of 2024. After failing to put away Calvin Kattar, however, he'll fight the man directly ahead of him in the rankings, 40-year-old Josh Emmett.
Zalal and Emmett were the two fighters who hung toughest against Ilia Topuria during his ascent up the Featherweight ladder. A lesser version of Zalal closed as a -140 favorite and took a round against Topuria in a short-notice debut for the future champ, while Emmett hung around with Ilia for 25 minutes; the only other opponent aside from Zalal that Topuria did not finish in professional MMA.
Zalal – who is 11 years younger than Emmett – is the bigger man (4" taller, 2" reach), the much quicker mover, and the more efficient distance striker (+2.2 to -0.9 strike differential per minute); still, Emmett carries significantly more power, which should make up for the volume differential.
Zalal has relied upon his offensive grappling during his current winning streak, and Emmett comes from a wrestling base. Still, Emmett hasn't shown great takedown defense, and given Zalal's proactive pace (4.6 attempts per five minutes) and superior quickness, I'd expect the Moroccan Devil to get this fight to the mat—and to advance to dominant positions.
I project value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected +161, listed +200) and on Zalal to win inside the distance (projected +263, listed +359 in an SGP at Caesars) ,and would bet those props to +175 and +290, respectively.
He looks like a completely different fighter – both technically and athletically – relative to his first UFC stint, and father time should eventually to catch up with Emmett, who is bound to show athletic decline given his age and weight class (average age of 32), either in this fight, his next, or the one after that.
Projection: Youssef Zalal (81%)
Sean's Pick:
- Youseef Zalal wins Inside the Distance (+359, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +290
