Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis Odds
| Hokit Odds | -425 |
| Lewis Odds | +330 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+160/-210) |
| Location | White House Lawn, Washington DC |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Freedom 250 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Freedom 250 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Tale of the Tape
| Hokit | Lewis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-0 | 29-13 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:45 | 8:50 |
| Height | 6'1" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 235 lbs. | 260 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/12/1997 | 2/07/1985 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 9.25 | 2.46 |
| SS Accuracy | 62% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.81 | 2.57 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 39% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.89 | 0.55 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 26% |
| TD Def | 75% | 52% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.6 |
I believe that Josh Hokit is a future UFC Heavyweight title contender (if not a potential champion), and I will continue to bet him accordingly. Hokit is an elite athlete – a former D-I All-American wrestler and H-Back at Fresno State (who made an NFL practice squad)-, but he is small for the Heavyweight division; Derrick Lewis stands 2" taller, with a 6" reach advantage.
Still, Hokit sacrifices side and power for pace and quickness, overwhelming slower Heavyweights with pressure and volume.
He has a substantial wrestling advantage over Derrick Lewis, who has awful takedown defense (52%) and a limited bottom game, relying on mere overpowering and exploding back to his feet.
Still, Lewis has looked particularly diminished in his recent bouts – after more than 30 fights in the UFC octagon – and this sets up as a smash spot for Hokit, who is 13 years his junior.
It only takes one big punch from Lewis to change the outcome of any fight, but it's difficult to put that implied probability much higher than 10-15% against an opponent more than a decade his junior.
Hokit vs. Lewis Pick, Prediction
I would parlay Hokit's moneyline to -700, and consider betting his odds to win by KO/TKO (projected -137, listed -110) to -125, or inside the distance (projected -322, listed -250) to -225.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Parlay (-194, 0.5u), Kalshi; parlay to -700 and -1000 respectively: Josh Hokit & Ilia Topuria
- Josh Hokit by KO/TKO (-115, 0.2u), FanDuel; bet to -125
