Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos Odds, Prediction
| Tafa Odds | -175 |
| Tokkos Odds | +145 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+105/ -135) |
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC Nashville odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Nashville with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Junior Tafa vs. Tuco Tokkos prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.
On a card that features two former 205 lbs fighters moving up to heavyweight, the main card opener features former heavyweight Junior Tafa making his 205lbs debut. The younger Tafa brother went 2-3 in his former division and is hoping to find more success in a smaller weight class. The market isn't especially confident in his odds, though, making him just a moderate favorite against Tuco Tokkos, who is 0-3 in the UFC.
Here's my Tafa vs. Tokkos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tafa | Tokkos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-3 | 10-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:58 | 7:33 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/21/1996 | 6/30/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.36 | 2.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 38% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.84 | 4.99 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 2.65 |
| TD Acc | 0% | 40% |
| TD Def | 77% | 33% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Junior Tafa comes from a fighting family. His grandfather was a national boxing champion, and three of his brothers are professional fighters of some form, including fellow UFC fighter Justin.
Keeping the Tafa brothers straight is the first challenge in handicapping either of their fights. Not only do they look very similar, but they've each served as last-minute replacements for each other in the UFC, and both hold knockout wins over Parker Porter.
Junior's knockout of Porter in 2023 is one of just two of his UFC wins, but it showed the former Glory Kickboxer at his best. He's a crisp technical boxer who held a noticeable speed advantage on the feet over Porter and much of the heavyweight division.
That's one of the reasons I'm concerned about his drop to light heavyweight. On the whole, the speed and technical ability in the lighter division are much higher, which potentially neutralizes the edge Tafa had at heavyweight.
He's struggled against more athletic heavyweights as well, losing a decision to Mohammed Usman, getting finished by Marcos Rogerio de Lima with leg kicks, and dropping the first round to Sean Sharaf — a UFC debutant who took the fight on a few days' notice.
Those deficits could be more apparent at 205, where there are plenty of fighters who are faster and with better gas tanks. On the plus side, Tafa's losses have all included him being taken down, which he may be able to defend against smaller opposition.
That will be the key dynamic against Tokkos, who picked up takedowns against highly regarded prospects Mingyang Zhang and Navajo Stirling in what were ultimately losing efforts.
Both of those fighters are undefeated in the UFC, and pretty clearly at a higher level than Tafa, particularly on the ground. Tafa was nearly finished by Sharaf when he was taken down, and was submitted by fellow UFC Nashville competitor Valter Walker with a first-round heel hook.
Outside of the grappling, Tafa also has a notable vulnerability to leg kicks. Besides the UFC loss to de Lima via kicks, he was finished in a kickboxing match after repeatedly being dropped with kicks.
Tokkos is a fairly adept kicker of the leg, landing a few in each of his UFC fights. With his height and reach edge, they could be an effective tool to limit the power coming back from Tafa, which is the biggest edge the favorite has.
Tafa vs. Tokkos, Prediction, Odds
Despite its placement on the main card, this is a fairly low-level UFC fight.
Both athletes have fairly glaring flaws, with Tokos getting outstruck at nearly a two-to-one ratio in the UFC and Tafa bringing an underdeveloped grappling game and highly questionable cardio to the table.
Whether his cardio gets better at 205 is hard to determine. On the one hand, he's carrying much less weight. On the other hand, the weight cut could impact his gas tank as well, especially for a fighter used to competing at his natural weight.
I don't see the new weight class fixing his grappling issues or his ability to withstand leg kicks, though. Dropping a division is sometimes referred to as "the fighter's false friend" because fighting smaller opponents always seems helpful — until you have to deal with the speed smaller fighters typically bring.
Tafa will be dangerous in the early moments of the fight, but that power will wane even if his cardio improves.
For that reason, I'm taking a shot on the underdog — but parlaying it with the over 4.5 minutes on DraftKings to boost the odds to +255. While Tokkos live is also an option, I like locking in the juicier odds and not hoping for the live market to swing our way.
Billy's Pick: Tuco Tokkos and Over 4.5 Minutes DraftKings SGP +255
