Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley Odds, Prediction
| Usman Odds | +225 |
| Buckley Odds | -278 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-105/-125) |
| Location | State Farm Arena | Atlanta, Georgia |
| Bout Time | 12:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Atlanta odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Atlanta with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley predictions, picks and odds for UFC Atlanta on Saturday, June 14.
Former welterweight champion and No. 1 ranked pound-for-pound fighter Kamaru Usman returns to the octagon on Saturday for the first time since October 2023, when he lost on short notice in his middleweight debut against Khamzat Chimaev.
Before his fifth-round KO loss at UFC 278 against Leon Edwards, Usman (five title defenses) was gaining hype as the UFC's potential welterweight G.O.A.T. –potentially surpassing Georges St. Pierre (nine title defenses). Still, he enters Saturday's bout as an underdog, on a three-fight losing streak, and is winless since November 2021.
Conversely, Buckley enters on a six-fight winning streak, including finishes over Vicente Luque, Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, and Colby Covington, and has shown significant improvements during his 15-fight UFC tenure.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Atlanta Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these welterweights. They should make their cage walk at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET (9:30 p.m. PT) on ESPN on Sunday morning.
Here's my Usman vs. Buckley prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Usman | Buckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-4 | 21-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:27 | 10:39 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 76" |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 5/11/1987 | 4/27/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.36 | 4.22 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.74 | 3.13 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.82 | 1.78 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 45% |
| TD Def | 89% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.1 |
The most significant metric in this matchup is the age gap—Buckley is seven years younger than the former champion, making Usman a potential "value trap" based on historical age data.
When there is at least a seven-year age gap in MMA fights, the younger fighter has won more than 12% above expectation compared to the betting market, 67% of the time at average odds of -122 (55% implied).
Buckley has been highly active, fighting four times since Usman's last appearance. Still, he hasn't taken much damage, and the lengthy 19-month layoff for Kamaru increases the likelihood of athletic decline relative to his previous form.
Usman has a well-rounded skill set, but his style is predicated on imposing his elite athleticism and otherworldly cardio against opponents. His durability has started to slip late in his career, and Buckley is a dangerous and dynamic striker, capable of hurting Usman early and often.
Still, after losing a 10-8 first round against Khamzat, Usman won the second and third rounds on two of three scorecards and likely would have won a five-round fight against one of the more dangerous fighters in the sport.
Buckley's cardio held up fine in his win over Colby Covington, and he didn't appear as though he would tire in the second and third rounds. Still, I do think Usman can drain the gas tank of the former middleweight by pushing him up against the fence for extended stretches or landing takedowns and consolidating top position.
Usman, oft-maligned for his style, is more than capable of cage-pushing his way to victory. He's probably the best in the sport at implementing that style, winning the title over Tyron Woodley (18:13 of control, landed two takedowns) against the fence and thoroughly controlling Jorge Masvidal for roughly two-thirds (16:38) of their first matchup. The second fight went a bit differently:
There's a perception that Usman (averages 3.9 takedowns per five minutes at a distance, 45% accuracy) —who has bad knees— doesn't proactively wrestle at this stage of his career, but he tried 27 times against Leon Edwards in their second and third fights (combined 15:39 control) and was merely overmatched in that area, for the first time in his career, against Chimaev.
Until that fight, Usman (90% control rate) had never officially been taken down or put on his back in the UFC, and he likely retains a significant wrestling edge over Buckley (74% takedown defense, 60% control rate) unless he's shot athletically.
Still, Buckley is both the more efficient (+0.7 to +0.5 strike differential per minute at distance) and diverse striker, with a better kicking game. He is also the quicker man, and while he showed good takedown defense (denied 7 of 8 attempts) against a diminished Colby Covington, I thought his takedown defense and scrambling abilities against Nassourdine Imavov (denied 5 of 7 attempts, 3:56 control) and Albert Duraev ( denied 7 of 9 attempts, 1:48 control) showed extreme competence.
In the same respect, Buckley has found more success in recent bouts by offensively wrestling, particularly against Wonderboy (landed 4 of 7 attempts, 4:13 control) and Nursulton Ruziboev (4 of 4, 5:30 control). That path won't be available to him in this matchup.
If Usman can get the grappling going early, he might be able to tire Buckley out, top-time him, and either win a decision or find a late finish. At striking range, Usman should keep up on volume, but Buckley is the far more durable man, with more finishing upside, and the damage optics should favor him, too.
As a result, you can look to live bet Usman after Round 1 or 2 as the more proven man in the championship rounds, and once Buckley's power begins to diminish from defensively grappling.
Usman vs. Buckley Prediction
I projected Joaquin Buckley as a -229 favorite in this matchup, and I don't show value on either side of the moneyline. I would want at least +250 (28.6% implied) or better to play Kamaru Usman pre-fight.
I projected the fight to go to a decision just over 50% of the time (-104 implied) and projected a slight value on the fight to go to a decision (listed +118). However, I would rather bet Usman to win by decision (projected +391, listed +550) at a more significant edge.
Alternatively, you could play an alternative double chance prop with Usman to win by decision or Buckley to win by KO/TKO (projected -139, listed -130).
I don't project an edge on Buckley to win by KO/TKO (projected +166, listed +163), so you are lessening your edge by including both outcomes compared to Usman by decision. Still, that prop does encompass the majority of outcomes for this contest.
Lastly, make sure to target Usman in the live betting market anytime after Round 1, particularly if he has not wrestled to that point in the fight.
Sean's Pick: Kamaru Usman wins by decision (+550 at FanDuel) | Usman wins by Decision or Buckley wins by KO/TKO (-130 at DraftKings) | Usman Live after Round 1
