Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Odds, Prediction
| Gastelum Odds | +300 |
| Pyfer Odds | -380 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-135/+105) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer predictions, picks and odds for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
In a fight that was supposed to take place back in March, middleweight mainstays Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer will do battle on the UFC 316 main card. Dana White’s push for Pyfer stardom took a sharp detour in 2024 when the rising prospect lost a unanimous decision to another middleweight veteran in Jack Hermansson. Pyfer rebounded with a knockout victory, which has now created an opportunity to take advantage of a mispriced total on Saturday night.
Here's my Gastelum vs. Pyfer prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gastelum | Pyfer | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-9 | 13-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:37 | 7:23 |
| Height | 5'9" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1991 | 9/17/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.74 | 3.72 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.48 | 3.48 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.10 | 1.45 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 41% |
| TD Def | 59% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Interestingly, for as wide as this moneyline is with Pyfer installed as a substantial favorite, it’s worth noting the striking statistics between these two men are nearly identical. Kelvin Gastelum has the edge in striking defense at 57% to Pyfer's 51%, but striking accuracy, strikes absorbed per minute, and strikes landed per minute are truly negligible.
Despite the hype surrounding Joe Pyfer, he has one knockout victory over the last 26 months. That was against an aging fighter with waning durability in Marc-Andre Barriault. Looking back over his career, which knockout by Pyfer has held up as a sign he has significant power?
Pyfer’s knockout wins that created the hype surrounding him – his Dana White Contender Series win and his UFC debut win, both came against fighters that have suffered multiple losses via knockout.
Enter Kelvin Gastelum, a man who has never been finished due to strikes despite stepping into the cage with some of the elite in the UFC organization. While Gastelum will be at a decided size and reach disadvantage, I believe he still has the edge in speed and undoubtedly will lean on his vast experience.
Gastelum should be able to use his movement skills to make Pyfer track him down, which could lead Pyfer to slow down as we have seen him tend to do in extended fights. In Pyfer’s loss last year versus Hermansson, his significant striking accuracy dipped from 41% in round one, to 36% in round two, to 30% in round three. That was a five-round fight while this one is just three, but it's still concerning.
His coaches should urge him to use a measured approach, as it’s unlikely he will put Gastelum away in the early going, potentially even mixing in his wrestling. Predicting the plan of a fighter before the opening bell can prove to be a futile exercise, but many of the paths I see the favorite Pyfer taking leads me to believe this fight will be extended past round one and beyond.
If there has been one knock on Gastelum throughout his career, it is his lack of power. With one knockout win over the last eight years, you can be sure the gameplan for the veteran is to stick and move. If taken down, working back to his feet will be paramount as he does not want to spend too much time under a man with such a size disparity.
Gastelum will need to be aware of any submission attempts, as he has been submitted three times throughout his UFC career, albeit by better submission grapplers than Pyfer.
Gastelum vs. Pyfer Prediction
Gastelum fights have made it to decision in eight of his last ten appearances inside the octagon. I simply line Pyfer’s finish equity much lower than the oddsmakers and there is very little chance we see Gastelum get his hand raised by anything other than a close decision.
I like the value on the prospects of this fight seeing all three rounds to decide the victor.
The best line is -124 at BetRivers, but FanDuel also has a -126 line that I'd happily take.
John's Pick: Gastelum/Pyfer Over 2.5 Rounds -124 (BetRivers)
