Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque Odds
| Gastelum Odds | -258 |
| Luque Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 327 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 327 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque prediction for UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Gastelum vs. Luque pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Gastelum | Luque | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-10 (1 NC) | 23-12-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:43 | 9:41 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/24/1991 | 11/27/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.67 | 4.83 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.53 | 5.30 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.01 | 0.90 |
| TD Acc | 34% | 48% |
| TD Def | 60% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.7 |
Gastelum vs. Luque Pick, Prediction
Vicente Luque is moving up to middleweight for this bout but will still hold a size advantage (2" taller, 4" reach advantage) over Kelvin Gastelum, who has always been too big to cut to 170 but too small to fill out at 185.
It seemed like Luque was done two years ago, following news of a brain bleed that threatened his career, and an awkward knockout loss against Joaquin Buckley. He returned to upset Themba Gorimbo in under a minute as a big underdog, but has looked slow and well past his prime in a subsequent finish loss to Kevin Holland, and was recently battered for 15 minutes at the hands of Joel Alvarez.
Gastelum is the far more durable man, but has shown a susceptibility to awkward submissions, and it's possible that Luque, a front choke specialist, can latch onto his neck and finish the fight.
Still, it's likelier that Gastelum hits Luque once and folds him; the cumulative damage Luque has sustained both throughout his career and particularly in recent years suggests that the end of his career is very near, and moving up in weight is a last-ditch play born of desperation to prolong the inevitable.
This matchup is an opportunity for Gastelum to secure his first knockout win since 2017 (in Michael Bisping's final fight). I do project an actual edge on Luque by submission (projected +824, listed +1300) as opposed to Gastelum by KO/TKO (projected +203, listed +180).
However, considering the potential binary nature of this matchup, I would bet the fight to end inside the distance (projected -126, listed -105) up to -115.
Projection: Gastelum (69.1%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-105, 0.25u), DraftKings, bet to -115
