Kelvin Gaustalem vs. Joe Pyfer Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 316

Check out my Gaustalem vs. Pyfer prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here's my Gaustalem vs. Pyfer prediction for tonight.

Kelvin Gaustalem vs. Joe Pyfer Odds

Gaustalem vs. Pyfer Pick

This bout was rescheduled after Pyfer pulled out with an illness before their UFC Fight Night bout in Mexico City. Pyfer, who is a powerful, fast starter – and the bigger man (5" taller, 4" reach advantage) figured to struggle with cardio while fighting at elevation in Mexico City. Still, they should look more formidable at sea level, in his home state of New Jersey.

While Pyfer carries significant power for the Middleweight division, Gastelum is one of the more durable fighters in the history of the sport, and he's shown excellent recoverability in the fights where he has been knocked down (against Israel Adesanya and Jared Cannonier).

I think Pyfer is likelier to submit Gastelum than knock him out; Pyfer has shown a sneaky offensive grappling game, submitting Abdul Razak Alhassan via arm triangle (Gastelum lost by the same method against Chris Weidman); and Gastelum tends to lose focus on the ground; his heel hook loss against Jack Hermansson was due to poor Fight IQ.

Still, while Pyfer should be dangerous early, Gastelum should be able to work his way back into the fight as Pyfer's explosiveness wanes in the second and third rounds, and Kelvin is likely a sharp live bet after five minutes.

I do project an edge on this fight to reach a decision, setting the line at 57% (-130 implied) compared to a division average of 45% (+122 implied). Still, Gastelum isn't a potent finisher (9 of his 14 UFC wins have come via decision), and both men have exceptional durability.

Bet the GTD prop at +105 to -120 – and wait for a live entry on Gastelum.

I also show correlated value on either fighter to win by decision, setting Gastelum at +527 and Pyfer at +147 compared to listed odds of +650 and +170, respectively.

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Gaustalem vs. Pyfer Predictions

Picks:

• Fight Goes to Decision (+104, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -120)
• Kelvin Gastelum Live after Round 1