Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert
| Daukaus Odds | -455 |
| Meerschaert Odds | +350 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 322 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 322 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert prediction for UFC 322on Saturday, November 15, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Daukaus vs. Meerschaert pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Daukaus | Meerschaert | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-4-0 | 37-20-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:43 | 8:33 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 76" | 77" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 2/27/1993 | 12/18/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.25 | 3.02 |
| SS Accuracy | 53% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.93 | 3.49 |
| SS Defense | 42% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.11 | 1.83 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 30% |
| TD Def | 82% | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Daukaus vs. Meerschaert Pick, Prediction
Gerald Meerschaert III (GM3) is the promotional record-holder for middleweight finishes and submissions (12). Still, he's 0-5 on the scorecards in the UFC, and facing an opponent in Kyle Daukaus who can both grapple (61% vs. 49% control rate) and has never been submitted.
Daukaus is the better striker than GM3 (+2.1 to +0.1 strike differential per minute). Although he is a bit chinny, those concerns are alleviated in a matchup against a submission artist whose best strike is a body kick.
Neither man is a particularly potent offensive wrestler (30% takedown rate for GM3, 24% for Daukaus). Still, Daukaus is the younger, quicker athlete with much better takedown defense (77% vs. 43%) and elusiveness, and I'd expect him to be able to dictate where the fight plays out.
And while Daukaus remains near his prime at 32-years-old – on a four-fight winning streak and in his second UFC stint – GM3 is nearing retirement, having lost three consecutive bouts, and five of his past seven, while losing by finish in four of those contests; GM3 seemingly doesn't have the physicality, durability, or cardio to complete in the UFC in his late thirties.
I show an edge on the under, or the fight to end inside the distance (projected -319, listed -235) and would play that prop to around -300. Alternatively, or in addition, bet Daukaus to win inside the distance (projected -172, listed -125) up to -165.
Projection: Kyle Daukaus (75.6%)
Sean's Pick:
- Kyle Daukaus wins Inside the Distance (-125, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to -165
