Check out my Mederos vs. Choinski prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
Here's my Mederos vs. Choinski prediction for tonight.
MarQuel Mederos vs. Mark Choinski Odds
| Mederos Odds | -170 |
| Choinski Odds | +142 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-160/+124) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code | |
Mederos vs. Choinski Pick
MarQuel Mederos was supposed to compete on last week's UFC APEX card against Bolaki Oki but pulled out on fight week due to a "severe illness" that left him "unable to train, fight, or eat." Mederos was the final fighter to weigh in on Friday; a concerning sign considering the cross-country flight, additional weight cut, and recovery from his illness over the past week.
He'll face UFC newcomer Mark Choinski, an undefeated 8-0 prospect and former three-time Division III All-American wrestler. Choinski is aggressive on the feet and can effectively check leg kicks, but he doesn't move his head well. To upset Mederos, he'll need to wrestle and grapple successfully.
Choinski was booked for a regional fight next week in Anthony Pettis FC – where he's the Lightweight champion – so he was in camp preparing for a fight anyway. He also trains at Roufusport MMA in Wisconsin alongside the Pettis brothers, Christian Rodriguez, Raufeon Stots, Emmanuel Sanchez, and other high-caliber MMA fighters. While he's faced relatively low-level competition, Choniski does seem like a decent prospect, but he's already 29 years old and could struggle if he can't secure takedowns against Mederos.
Mederos is a better boxer than Choinski, but may struggle to land leg kicks against a more skilled wrestler who is adept at both catching and checking them. Additionally, Mederos spent half of his last fight getting outwrestled and controlled by Austin Hubbard, ultimately winning a narrow but deserved split decision. I suspect that he's coming into this fight less than 100%, given the recent illness, travel, and weight-cutting complications; and if Choinski can push an early grappling pace, it could drain his gas tank.
I projected Choinski's moneyline around +126, and would bet him down to +135. I also show value on the fight to go to decision (projected -179, listed -155) and correlated value on Choinski to win by decision (projected +344, listed +440).
Mederos vs. Choinski Predictions
Picks=:
- Mark Choniski (+155, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +135)
