Check out my Vettori vs Allen prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19.
Vettori has lost three of his last five fights since challenging for the UFC Middleweight Championship in June 2021. His last eight fights have gone to a decision. Allen won seven straight before his two-fight skid.
Here's my Vettori vs Allen pick for tonight.
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen Odds
| Vettori Odds | +170 |
| Allen Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-360 / +260)
|
| Location | Smoothie King Center | New Orleans |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+
|
| UFC 318 odds via DraftKings as of Friday night. Bet the UFC with our DraftKings promo code |
Vettori vs Allen Pick
After his line peaked as high as +260, Marvin Vettori has taken heavy steam toward my projected line of +118, and my price target of +130 pre-fight on this matchup, in a fight heavily favored to go to decision (projected -315, listed -255).
Still, you might be able to find the peak price on the underdog live after Round 1. Allen is often a fast starter who fades in the second half of his fights. Conversely, Vettori has proven 25-minute cardio and elite durability, and has never been submitted in his professional career.
Vettori should have the tools to stay competitive in this fight, including strong takedown defense (69%), underrated grappling (a 76% control rate compared to 55% for Allen), and solid output. Allen often loses position trying to hunt submissions, which allows his opponents room to escape and scramble back to their feet.
Vettori is slightly more efficient than Allen at distance (- -0.1 to -0.7 strike differential per minute). Still, Allen should have a clear speed advantage in the opening round, which will dissipate the longer the fight goes.
Bet Vettori pre-fight to +130 and consider playing his decision prop (projected +182, listed +260) to +200. Additionally, target Vettori live after Round 1, when Allen typically begins to slow down.
Vettori vs Allen Predictions
- Marvin Vettori (+175, 0.35u) at Fanatics (bet to +130)
- Marvin Vettori Live after Round 1
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
