Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19

Check out the Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Here's my Holloway vs. Poirier pick and prediction.

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, for the first time since 2015 for a BMF Title Fight between Max "Blessed" Holloway and Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier.

The two previously competed at UFC 143 in 2012 and UFC 236 in 2019. Poirier won both matchups; the first via triangle armbar, and the second a unanimous 49-46 (x3) decision, while securing interim lightweight gold.

Holloway — who earned the BMF title with the 2024 Knockout of the Year over Justin Gaethje — is returning from his first career KO loss (for the Featherweight title last October) against Ilia Topuria.

Poirier — who has never lost consecutive bouts in his UFC career — enters off a submission loss to Islam Makhachev in a lightweight title bout last June.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 318 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these lightweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET (9:15 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV on Sunday morning.

Here's my Holloway vs. Poirier pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier closed as a -515 favorite in the first fight of this rivalry, and +190 when they rematched for the interim lightweight title in 2019. Despite winning both matchups, he opened around +110 for Saturday's trilogy bout, but after the line initially trended towards a pick'em, Max Holloway's side has steamed towards -140.

By the numbers, Holloway is the more efficient striker, out-landing opponents by 2.2 strikes per minute at distance, compared to +1.1 for Poirier. And while Holloway's metrics are skewed by dominant performances against Calvin Kattar (455-133 on significant strikes) and Bryan Ortega (290-110), he's the better defensive fighter than Poirier (59% vs. 52% striking defense; 5.1 vs. 6.0 strikes absorbed per minute at distance); and they land about the same amount of volume offensively (7.3 vs. 7.1 landed per minute).

Poirier is the superior grappler, although I don't expect him to utilize it much in this fight. Holloway has excellent takedown defense (83% career, denied 127 of 153) and Dustin seems likelier to pull guillotine (his favorite submission; although he's never hit one in a fight) then shoot a blast double (career 2.1 takedown attempts per five minutes, 36% accuracy) in his retirement fight in front of a home crowd. Still, if the fight does hit the mat, Dustin could secure a round with back control (career 50% control rate of clinch/ground time vs. 39% vs. Holloway).

In their fight at UFC236, Poirier landed one takedown on eight attempts, and generated 3:35 of control time — 14% of the entire bout — in the clinch and on the mat. Holloway out-landed Poirier on total strikes in four of the five rounds (208-180 overall). Still, a power and physicality advantage proved the difference for Poirier, who landed the more damaging strikes.

It was a closer fight than the 49-46 (x3) indicates; 20.7% of fan scorecards had the bout for Holloway, and more media members had the bout 48-47 either way than giving three rounds (or a 10-8 Round 1) to Poirier.

Since then, Holloway has seemingly added muscle and filled out physically, particularly in preparation for his matchup with Justin Gaethje.

At the same time, Poirier has slowed, and his own physicality has somewhat diminished. He may have overperformed in his loss to a potentially declining Islam Makhachev, surviving to the fifth round as a big underdog. Still, he was getting wiped out by Benoit Saint Denis until landing a hail mary against an opponent who was clearly fading from staph infection.

Aside from Saint Denis, Poirier has largely fought the old guard of the 155-pound division since last facing Holloway. In contrast, Max has consistently tested himself against rising contenders (including Kattar and Arnold Allen).

I was initially hesitant to back Holloway against Gaethje, given Holloway's difficulty and physical disadvantages against Poirier, which I thought might only be exacerbated against an even more powerful Gaethje. Still, Holloway looked both the quicker and stronger man in that fight, and I'd expect him to look like an equally faster and stronger man on Saturday against Poirier.

Holloway vs. Poirier Pick, Prediction

I projected Max Holloway as a near-160 favorite in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline up to around -150, at just under a two percent edge compared to my moneyline projection.

Moreover, I project this bout to reach a decision just under 60% of the time (-148 implied), and I would typically bet the goes-to-decision or GTD prop up to -136.

However, considering this is a BMF title bout involving Max Holloway and also Dustin Poirier's retirement fight, the likelihood that one or both action fighters point to the center and swing things out at one or multiple points of the contest is exceedingly high. As a result, given the potential violence in those high-variance swinging exchanges, I'd personally lean under or pass.

To that end, I do project a slight edge on Holloway by KO/TKO (projected +353, listed +380), which I would consider poking in addition to Holloway's moneyline, or using on round-robin tickets.

Sean's Pick: Max Holloway (-130 at ESPN); bet to -150 | Holloway wins by KO/TKO (+400 at FanDuel); bet to +375