Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere Odds, Prediction
| Landwehr Odds | +220 |
| Charriere Odds | -270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-166/ +130) |
| Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC Nashville odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Nashville with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Fight night in Nashville may not draw the eyes of the casual MMA fan, but one fight you do not want to miss is one involving Nate Landwehr. Nate “The Train” will be fighting in front of his home crowd as a sizable underdog on the main card Saturday night. His opponent Morgan Charriere is 2-2 in the UFC organization and may not have earned the right to be this much of a favorite against a battle-tested veteran like Landwehr.
Here's my Landwehr vs. Charriere pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Landwehr | Charriere | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-6 | 20-11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:48 | 9:50 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/6/1988 | 10/26/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.59 | 3.46 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.77 | 4.15 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 1.91 |
| TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
| TD Def | 74% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Charriere is an explosive athlete who undoubtedly looks the part. After his knockout victory over Gabriel Miranda in 2024, the feeling surrounding the Frenchman was overwhelmingly positive, with the assumption he had turned the corner heading into his prime.
Charriere opened as a pick 'em against another veteran in Nathaniel Wood, before bettors flooded the market with money backing the younger, more explosive finisher. They were disappointed in a lack of output that saw him attempt just 10 significant strikes in round one en route to a loss, where he landed just 42 strikes of significance the entire 15-minute bout.
This shouldn’t have been that surprising of result if you have followed the career of Charriere. He has never landed 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight, averaging just 3.4 strikes landed per 15 minutes. His low-volume style is a stylistic nightmare against someone with the constant pressure and output of Nate Landwehr.
Yes, Landwehr is 37 years of age, coming off a knockout loss and has absorbed an inordinate amount of damage throughout his career. With that said, the oddsmakers have made a mistake implying the most likely outcome as a Charriere decision win at +150. Charriere is 5-10 over the entirety of his MMA career when the fight has gone to decision.
Landwehr, on the other hand, is 7-2 to the decision in his career, all the while facing a much tougher strength of schedule.
The moneyline in this matchup is lined at the current price simply because of the damage Landwehr has sustained and how difficult it is to gauge just how much that has taken its toll. Landwehr's willingness to create chaotic exchanges combined with his forward pressure will open up opportunities for Charriere to land some explosive counter shots.
If you are backing Nate Landwehr, prepare to feel uncomfortable for the duration of the fight, but especially in the first 5 minutes when he is likely to eat a powerful strike or two before he really turns up the pace.
Landwehr vs. Charriere, Prediction, Odds
Charriere is not nearly as effective of a striker when he is on his back foot, which I expect him to be for the majority of this bout. Landwehr has all of the tools to spring the upset in what should be one of the most exciting fights of the night. I will be attacking this fight with a few different angles in the betting market.
As mentioned, I believe this line is too wide and will be backing the underdog with the home crowd behind him for half of a unit, with a quarter unit attached to Landwehr by decision. The path to him outworking and pressuring the less experienced Charriere is a viable outcome and has value at +450.
Lastly, under the FanDuel tab KO/TKO round combos I will add an additional quarter unit on Charriere by KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2 at +340, ensuring a small profit if the more explosive fighter does put away an aging Landwehr with a fight-ending counter while he is still fresh.
The longer the fight goes, the odds will start to swing in favor of our majority positions on the dog Landwehr.
John's Picks: Nate Landwehr +205 (.5u) | Landwehr Decision +450 (.25u) | Charriere by KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2 +340 (.25u) (All via FanDuel)
