Check out the Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere prediction for UFC Nashville on Saturday, July 12, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Fight night in Nashville may not draw the eyes of the casual MMA fan, but one fight you do not want to miss is one involving Nate Landwehr. Nate “The Train” will be fighting in front of his home crowd as a sizable underdog on the main card Saturday night. His opponent Morgan Charriere is 2-2 in the UFC organization and may not have earned the right to be this much of a favorite against a battle-tested veteran like Landwehr.
Here's my Landwehr vs. Charriere pick and prediction.
Nate Landwehr vs. Morgan Charriere Odds
Landwehr Odds | +225 |
Charriere Odds | -278 |
Over/Under | 2.5 (-160 / +124) |
Location | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee |
Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
UFC Nashville odds as of Saturday via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Nashville with our DraftKings promo code. |
Tale of the Tape
Landwehr | Charriere | |
---|---|---|
Record | 18-6 | 20-11-1 |
Avg. Fight Time | 9:48 | 9:50 |
Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
Reach (inches) | 72" | 69" |
Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Date of birth | 6/6/1988 | 10/26/1995 |
Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.59 | 3.46 |
SS Accuracy | 46% | 49% |
SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.77 | 4.15 |
SS Defense | 52% | 51% |
Take Down Avg | 0.85 | 1.91 |
TD Acc | 41% | 50% |
TD Def | 74% | 83% |
Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Charriere is an explosive athlete who undoubtedly looks the part. After his knockout victory over Gabriel Miranda in 2024, the feeling surrounding the Frenchman was overwhelmingly positive, with the assumption he had turned the corner heading into his prime.
Charriere opened as a pick 'em against another veteran in Nathaniel Wood, before bettors flooded the market with money backing the younger, more explosive finisher. They were disappointed in a lack of output that saw him attempt just 10 significant strikes in round one en route to a loss, where he landed just 42 strikes of significance the entire 15-minute bout.
This shouldn’t have been that surprising of result if you have followed the career of Charriere. He has never landed 50 significant strikes in a UFC fight, averaging just 3.4 strikes landed per 15 minutes. His low-volume style is a stylistic nightmare against someone with the constant pressure and output of Nate Landwehr.
Yes, Landwehr is 37 years of age, coming off a knockout loss and has absorbed an inordinate amount of damage throughout his career. With that said, the oddsmakers have made a mistake implying the most likely outcome as a Charriere decision win at +150. Charriere is 5-10 over the entirety of his MMA career when the fight has gone to decision.
Landwehr, on the other hand, is 7-2 to the decision in his career, all the while facing a much tougher strength of schedule.
The moneyline in this matchup is lined at the current price simply because of the damage Landwehr has sustained and how difficult it is to gauge just how much that has taken its toll. Landwehr's willingness to create chaotic exchanges combined with his forward pressure will open up opportunities for Charriere to land some explosive counter shots.
If you are backing Nate Landwehr, prepare to feel uncomfortable for the duration of the fight, but especially in the first 5 minutes when he is likely to eat a powerful strike or two before he really turns up the pace.