Check out the Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Sadykhov vs. Ziam pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Sadykhov
Ziam
Record
11-1-1
17-4-0
Avg. Fight Time
9:40
13:21
Height
5'10"
6'1"
Weight (pounds)
155 lbs.
155 lbs.
Reach (inches)
69"
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Orthodox
Date of birth
5/16/1994
3/21/1997
Sig Strikes Per Min
5.55
2.85
SS Accuracy
50%
51%
SS Absorbed Per Min
5.89
1.62
SS Defense
50%
64%
Take Down Avg
1.29
1.62
TD Acc
55%
40%
TD Def
75%
70%
Submission Avg
0.3
0.2
Sadykhov vs. Ziam Pick, Prediction
Nazim Sadykhov is a popular public underdog selection this week; fans and bettors in my sample are backing him to win this fight around 53% of the time, compared to implied odds closer to 46%.
Ziam is a bigger athlete (3" taller, 6" reach advantage), which should prove crucial at distance, but he's also the younger man. He has shown noticeable improvements during his UFC run, leveling up his grappling abilities.
He's the far more effective distance striker and minute winner than Sadykhov – outlanding opponents by more than two strikes per minute at distance. In contrast, Sadykhov gets outlanded by 2.6 strikes per minute. Sadkyhov has earned several finishes in fights where he was trailing on minutes or behind on the scorecards, including victori es over Nikolas Motta, Ismael Bonfim, and Evan Elder.
In fact, Sadykhov has lost the first round in four of his five UFC bouts, and the one he won (over Ismael Bonfim), he was doubled up on volume but swung two of the three scorecards with what proved to be a fight-ending cut.
Sadykhov is the more durable and robust athlete, and he could hurt and put Ziam away if he walks forward; still, I favor the Frenchman on minutes over Sadykhov's moments; bet Ziam up to -190 (projected -206).
Furthermore, I show a slight edge on Ziam to win by KO/TKO (projected +575, listed +800), but I'd give him below-average power and Sadykhov above-average durability relative to the 155-pound division; save that prop for round-robin tickets.
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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