Check out my Price vs. Smith prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28.
Price has lost three of his last four fights and only has two wins in his last eight UFC fights. He faces a tough test here in the form of the undefeated Smith, who won his UFC debut back in January. Of Smith’s 10 professional wins, eight are finishes.
Here's my Smith vs. Price pick for tonight.
Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith Odds
| Price Odds | -148 |
| Smith Odds | +124 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 Rounds (-180 / +140) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 317 odds via DraftKings as of Saturday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code | |
Price vs. Smith Pick
Jacobe Smith is set to close as the biggest moneyline favorite in UFC betting history on Saturday, at -2500 (96.1% implied) or higher as of Friday night, surpassing Isaac Dulgarian (-2400) vs. Brandon Marotte and Bo Nickal (-2200) vs. Val Woodburn.
Smith – a former D-1 wrestler at Oklahoma State, can take down Price (52% takedown defense) at will if he needs to but should be able to secure a highlight-reel KO (and is listed at -270 to do so) against an aging opponent with severe durability concerns (five KO losses in the UFC).
Price is the bigger man (2" taller, 4" reach advantage), but Smith is the far more explosive and quicker athlete, and he's -800 to win the fight inside the distance.
While I do think that pricing is steep, and I show a slight edge for Smith to win by decision (projected +617, listed +750), I'd rather bet on that prop small or pass on this fight altogether.
Price vs. Smith Predictions
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