Ode Osborne vs. Cody Durden Odds
| Osborne Odds | -102 |
| Durden Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-175 / +135) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Vegas 123 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 123 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
The UFC seems to be coming around to the idea that even a bad flyweight fight is better than most bouts in larger weight classes, booking two fighters with losing UFC records on the main card for Halloween night.
Cody Durden and Ode Osborne are far from contenders, but both bring a high-energy style to the Octagon that gives this one fight of the night potential. Will they deliver on that promise, and who ends up with their hand raised?
Here's my Osborne vs. Durden pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Osborne | Durden | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-9-0 | 18-11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:56 | 9:56 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 67" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/09/1992 | 3/29/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.94 | 3.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 44% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.24 | 3.89 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.94 | 3.82 |
| TD Acc | 29% | 48% |
| TD Def | 66% | 56% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.6 |
Cody Durden's best attribute is effort.
Often, that comes across as a pejorative, and that is at least somewhat my intention here. Durden is a solid, but not elite, grappler, a limited striker, and not an exceptional athlete by UFC flyweight standards. He also always shows up in shape, won't quit on himself, and fights to the final bell — literally and figuratively.
Durden had been released from the UFC following four straight losses when he agreed to a short-notice bout against Jafel Filho in April, but gutted out a clear decision as a nearly +500 underdog. The bout was vintage Durden, going five for five on takedowns, but mustering little offense on the feet and giving up position on the ground thanks to a reversal from the more talented overall grappler.
He ran into a similar problem in his last fight, initiating grappling exchanges against Alessandro Costa before eventually being submitted. The distinction between wrestling, the ability to get a fight to the ground or prevent it from getting there, and grappling, the ability to control and/or submit an opponent once a fight is on the mat, is key here. Durden is well above average at the former, but somewhat mediocre at the latter.
Fortunately for him, Osborne excels in neither domain. A solid striker, Osborne has been submitted in three of his seven UFC losses, and his results often come down to whether or not he can keep the fight standing. At 5'7" tall with a 6'1" reach, he's built for striking rather than grappling, and was submitted in the first round by Filho, their last common opponent and one whom Durden out-wrestled to a victory.
On the feet, Osborne is not only the more technical striker but also the more powerful man, with three UFC knockouts and a knockdown in a fight that he lost by decision. It's telling that all four of his UFC knockdowns have been in the first round as well. Osborne is extremely explosive, but typically unable to maintain his power deeper into fights. While he doesn't completely gas, once the fast-twitch ability is gone, his ceiling becomes point-fighting at range more than hunting big moments.
Which makes this fight not only binary from a stylistic standpoint, but also a temporal one: Osborne has plenty of early equity, while Durden likely prevails in a fight that makes it past five minutes.
Osborne vs. Durden Prediction, Picks
Throughout the week, this line has essentially flipped, with Osborne originally a slight favorite but that honor now going to Durden. I largely agree with that movement.
The smaller cage at the Apex is a big boost to Durden. Six of his seven UFC wins have been at the Apex, where his record stands at 6-3. He's 1-6 when competing in the larger cage. On top of that, this bout was originally booked for the summer, but postponed due to an Osborne injury. For a fighter with cardio concerns, being out of commission for some portion of the last three months is less than ideal.
Given the time dynamics, the best way to bet this fight is probably Durden live. However, assuming you aren't spending your Halloween watching one of the UFC's worst cards of the year, I'm fine with a Durden moneyline pick. He's -110 at Caesars, the best odds at the time of writing.
If you're taking Durden pre-fight, one way to hedge is with Osborne in Round 1 at +330, or Osborne on the Round 1 point spread (-1.5) at +165. The former obviously precludes a Durden win, while the latter could hit even with Osborne eventually losing.
Billy's Picks:Â Durden -110 (Caesars) | Osborne Round 1 Point Spread -1.5 +165 (DraftKings)
