Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC Vegas 123, Saturday, October 31

Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith Odds

The co-headliner in Las Vegas features an impromptu welterweight matchup between Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith. Originally slated to face Carlos Leal, Brown is now faced with a different stylistic test in Smith.

Fresh off a first-round finish over another newcomer in Bruce Whitehead earlier this month, Smith was apparently in shape and ready to jump on this opportunity. And when you consider Smith's luck when it comes to landing quality names, it's nice to see the highly-touted prospect get a chance to take a step in the direction of becoming a potential contender.

Here's my Brown vs. Smith pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

From a stylistic perspective, this fight pits a dynamic opportunist with experience against a more raw and athletic powerhouse that comes from a wrestling base.

A three-time All-American hailing from the legendary Oklahoma State University wrestling program, Smith is the latest installment of high-level American wrestlers stepping into mixed martial arts.

Traditionally, wrestling athletes of Smith's caliber tend to start their MMA careers by sticking to their base skills and steadily bolting on things like back takes and jiu-jitsu submissions. And once they gain more striking chops and accrue more miles, it's not uncommon to see wrestlers eventually swim harder toward stand-up exchanges, with some even falling in love with their hands.

Smith is still developing his game, but the former OSU Cowboy shows little fear and a natural aptitude when it comes to exploring each of the aforementioned realms.

Although we still need to see Smith in more extended exchanges on the feet, "Cobe" has shown that he can throw hard in combination and close the distance competently off of strikes. Smith has also shown a wicked body kick in past fights, which is a tool that would likely serve him well here.

Still, I'm not sure how much Smith will be looking to test his striking against a long and lanky striker like Brown.

Working off a diverse jab, Brown can change up the looks and timing of his lead hand to set up power shots from the rear. And when opponents can make it past Brown's offerings at range, "Rude Boy" offers a healthy dose of knees in the open and in tie-ups alike.

Brown also has some underrated head movement for a tall fighter, but the product of Jamaica can sometimes play it a bit too fast and loose with his defense for my liking.

Although knees will likely be a friend to Brown in this fight, I'll be curious to see if the 36-year-old shelves other lower-extremity attacks considering Smith's propensity to parlay caught kicks into takedowns.

Brown has made some solid improvements to his takedown defense along the fence and carries a wicked front-choke in his back pocket, but Smith has proven to be a diverse takedown threat.

From crafty trips in the clinch to powerful level changes in the open, Smith should have a plethora of ways to ground the action. And once Smith completes his takedowns, his ability to transition to and from riding positions appears rock solid (as Smith seldom misses an opportunity to punish his opponent with punches and elbows).

Brown vs. Smith Prediction, Picks

The oddsmakers and the public favor the younger fighter, listing Smith -265 and Brown +215 as of this writing.

Despite not disagreeing with who is favored to win, this betting line is still a little too wide for my liking.

I know that Smith was already in training and doesn't cut a ton of weight to begin with, but Brown is the more experienced fighter who had a full camp ahead of this fight. Should Brown show the ability to get work done on the feet while surviving potential storms on the floor, then this could be a long night for Smith.

However, between Smith being used to short-notice spots and the fact that Brown has a tendency to fade down the stretch himself, perceived advantages in preparation can start to become a tricky thing to parse. And even though Brown is the more proven product, it's quietly been nearly a decade since the Jamaican-born fighter has fought anyone with a wrestling base.

For that reason, I believe that targeting the total takedown markets makes much more sense than taking a hard side in this fight.

Between the smaller octagon of the Apex and the discomfort on the feet that I believe Brown's length will cause, I see Smith being funneled even harder than usual toward his A-game of wrestling. And so long as Smith doesn't ice Brown on his first blitz or get caught in a submission off his first shot, then I suspect we will see Smith hit a minimum of two takedowns regardless of this fight's result.

A quick finish by Brown in the first round could also spoil this party, but the two first-round finishes he owns in the octagon came against aging strikers who didn't attempt any takedowns.

Lastly, I'll quickly add that betting a point to be deducted in Brown's fights is currently my MMA white whale considering that Brown is the only fighter who can hold a candle to Jon Jones in the foul department. It's not a bet you'll ever see me on otherwise, but I believe that also hits this weekend.

Dan's Picks: Jacobe Smith Over 1.5 takedowns +110 (DraftKings)

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