Check out the Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima prediction for UFC 317 on Saturday, June 28, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Talbott vs. Lima Odds
| Talbott Odds | +150 |
| Van Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-200/ +154) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 317 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 317 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Two of the UFC's most exciting prospects open the main card at UFC 317. While Payton Talbott's star lost some shine when he lost to Raoni Barcelos he still has a bright future. First he needs to get through Felipe Lima, who's picked up two impressive UFC wins despite coming in on short notice and up a weight class in his debut.
Here's my Talbott vs. Lima pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Talbott | Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 9-1 | 14-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:20 | 13:08 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/09/1998 | 05/07/1998 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.73 | 3.50 |
| SS Accuracy | 55% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.75 | 2.32 |
| SS Defense | 44% | 72% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.32 | 1.71 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 42% |
| TD Def | 75% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.1 |
I love this matchup between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima. We have one hyper-aggressive action striker in Lima, taking on a calculated, measured counter striker in Talbott.
While I wish the UFC would've given Talbott an easier bounce back fight after his loss to Barcelos, both men have future champion in their range of outcomes, with exciting fighting styles that could make them stars.
Lima endured himself to UFC fans by accepting a short notice fight against Muhhamad Naimov up a weight class, taking it to Naimov from the opening bell, earning both men a Fight of the Night bonus.
While he finished that fight on the ground, he did his best work on the feet. After he hurt Naimov with strikes, Naimov forced a clinch that Lima used to hit a slide by and get to back control, where he eventually finished the fight with a rear naked choke.
He followed that up with a slightly less exciting but dominant win over Miles Johns, another featherweight whom Lima stepped up to challenge.
Lima trains at Allstars Training Center in Sweden, a camp notable for their wrestlers. Khamzat Chimaev occasionally makes his camps there, with a handful of other UFC fighters also on the roster.
He used more of that wrestling against Johns, but his two takedowns resulted in less than three minutes of total control time. That makes it somewhat unlikely that he copies Barcelos' gameplan against Talbott, which was based on relentless takedowns and top control.
Instead, I expect Lima to pressure forward in the striking game, throwing his usual array of jumping and spinning attacks while not shying away from brawling in the pocket.
If he does, that could be an advantageous style of fight for Talbott.
Talbott is tall and long for the division, and has a great feel for the specific ranges in which he can land but his opponents cannot. He outstruck Cameron Saaiman 79-31 in their matchup, and Saaiman's height and reach are similar to Lima's.
Talbott could find similar success against Lima, particularly in the larger UFC PPV cage. He'll have plenty of space in which to operate and keep Lima at the end of his punches.
He does have the classic tall fighter issue of keeping his chin high, especially at range. So far he's been able to adjust and tuck his chin when exchanging in the pocket, but at the speed Lima operates there's certainly potential for Talbott to be a split-second slow to adjust to Lima's advancing into range.
Coupled with Lima's power, it wouldn't shock me if Talbott's previously durable chin is truly tested for the first time.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima Pick, Prediction
I have two plus-money picks for this fight that pair nicely, and should give us a shot at profiting in multiple ways.
The first is a bet on Talbott straight up, with a best price of +152 at FanDuel. This fight is a much better style matchup for him than he previously faced against Barcelos, and also a massive price adjustment after Talbott was a -1200 or so favorite heading into that fight. Hopefully, Talbott also used the previous six months to shore up his bottom game in case Lima does try to follow Barcelos' blueprint.
Talbott also throws strikes at a higher clip than Lima, with nearly double the significant strikes landed per minute. That should give him the edge if this one hits the scorecards.
With that said, my other bet is on the Under 2.5 rounds at +154 via DraftKings. The biggest threat I see to Talbott is Lima catching him at some point, so this way we'd still profit if that happens in the first 12.5 minutes.
I'll be betting half a unit on each of these plus-money props, and turning a slight profit if either one hits. Obviously, the dream scenario is Talbott finishing the fight himself and cashing both bets, which is also a distinct possibility for the powerful striker.
Billy's Pick: Payton Talbott +152 (FanDuel) | Under 2.5 Rounds +154 (DraftKings)
