Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos Odds
| Simon Odds | -170 |
| Barcelos Odds | +142 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-250/+190) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 111 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 111 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos prediction for UFC Vegas 110on Saturday, November 1, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Raoni Barcelos and Ricky Simon will clash in one of the more intriguing matchups on the card as both carry momentum into this bantamweight bout. Both men may have been highly respected and thought of as potential contenders, while taking big steps forward this year with impressive victories. In what should be a tightly contested match, this line is just a little too wide for my liking.
Here's my Simon vs. Barcelos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Simon | Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 22-6 | 20-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:32 | 12:52 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/31/1992 | 5/01/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.93 | 4.87 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.72 | 4.40 |
| SS Defense | 61% | 60% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.01 | 2.33 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 33% |
| TD Def | 75% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
Ricky Simon’s knockout over Javid Basharat earlier this year painted the veteran in a different light as it showcased just how dangerous and well-rounded he has become.
After suffering three straight defeats against some of the top competition in the bantamweight division in 2023 and 2024, it felt like Simon had lost his positioning and would face an uphill battle in regaining the form that saw him begin his UFC career with a 9-2 record.
However, the aforementioned knockout victory followed by a decisive decision win over Cameron Smotherman have most MMA junkies believe Simon may just now be peaking at age 33. Simon has the stamina and ability to pressure his opponent with relentless pursuit of the takedown, as displayed by his 10 attempts of Smotherman back in June.
Simon needed to land just three of those takedowns to rack up more than 9 minutes of control time. It’s a path to victory we’ve seen before from Simon and despite recently showcasing power in his hands, it’s the most effective way for him to win minutes inside of the octagon.
Simply put, I’m not so sure he will be able to execute a wrestling-heavy gameplan against Barcelos. Barcelos boasts an 85% takedown defense rate and will not accept bottom position when he is taken down. Barcelos won’t pitch a shutout against Simon in nullifying takedowns, but his counter-wrestling should allow him to avoid prolonged periods of making it seem to the judges that Simon is in control of the fight.
Barcelos is the more precise striker here and if Simon rushes in with impatience, Barcelos has the ability to land damaging shots that can swing rounds. Dealing with pressure hasn’t been as much of an issue for the veteran Barcelos as has the length of strikers who can out-land him at distance. Simon is not this type of striker, as it’s in his nature to come forward and unleash his offense.
One factor that may be overlooked in this spot is if Simon’s early attempts at controlling this fight on the mat are deterred, he may opt to rely on his newly found confidence in his striking. It is worth noting, in his last three fights, Simon is just 6 of 24 on takedown attempts (25%).
If Barcelos can make him pay when closing the distance, this may turn into more of a kickboxing affair than most analysts can envision between two highly skilled grapplers.
Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos Pick, Prediction
I am not discounting Simon’s ability to execute his gameplan, and it’s certainly in the realm of possibility that he can appear to be the more aggressive of the two on Saturday night.
Given the recent form of Barcelos, though, I believe this line should be much closer to a pick’ em than its current price. Don’t be surprised when your wager is decided by a split decision – I’ll happily take the +150 in any instance that comes down to the judges’ discretion.
John's Pick: Barcelos +150 (Caesars)
