Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman Odds
| Turcios Odds | +160 |
| Smotherman Odds | -192 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ricky Turcios vs. Cameron Smotherman prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Both Cameron Smotherman and Ricky Turcios are in danger of being without a job should they lose on Saturday. Smotherman is 0-2 since a massive upset in his UFC debut, while Turcios is 2-3 in the UFC, with both wins coming via split decision. This fight is also a step down for both men, as they've both had relatively difficult paths to start their UFC careers. Which one will prove they belong in a stacked bantamweight division with a win on Saturday?
Here's my Turcios vs. Smotherman pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Turcios | Smotherman | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:44 | 11:30 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/5/1993 | 9/17/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.73 | 4.07 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 37% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.72 | 3.52 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.91 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 20% | N/A |
| TD Def | 44% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0 |
Ricky Turcios made his way to the UFC via Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter, where he won the bantamweight tournament with a split decision win over Brady Hiestand. While that was probably the correct decision — most fans and media also scored the bout for Turcios — it was a portent of things to come, as Turcios' style often leads to him fighting to close decisions.
Turcios is a lifelong martial artist with black belts in both Taekwondo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Before turning pro as an MMA fighter, he had a fairly extensive background in amateur Muay Thai, and his striking is heavily reliant on kicks and knees.
The best description of his overall style, though, is as an (extremely) poor man's version of former bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Like Merab, Turcios attempts to overwhelm opponents with volume. He attempts just under 12 significant strikes per minute, and about 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, both well above average. He also tends to build throughout the fight, picking up the pace in the later rounds.
Unfortunately, he's nowhere near the level of athlete that "The Machine" is, and he also lacks the takedown ability. The latter point is crucial, as he's a better technical grappler than many of his opponents — including Smotherman — but without an ability to get the fight to the ground in top position, he has a hard time capitalizing on those skills. He also doesn't pack much striking power, so he will occasionally lose rounds in which he outstrikes his opponent, but the superior power coming back is more impactful to the judges. That happened in two of the three rounds in his last fight against Bernardo Sopaj.
The athletically gifted but raw Smotherman should look to follow a similar gameplan. He's overmatched in terms of pure technique and experience, having started training martial arts in general four years after Turcios became a pro fighter. However, he's a far superior athlete, with fast hands and solid power.
Both of Smotherman's UFC losses have involved his opponent limiting that threat with repeated takedowns. Over his last two bouts, he was taken down eight times and surrendered a total of 13+ minutes of control time. Like his fellow Houstonian (and UFC 324 main card fighter), Derrick Lewis, his plan on the ground largely relies on using his athleticism to explode back to his feet, with mixed results.
Given his speed and strength edge over Turcios, that plan has a fairly solid chance of working. The real question is whether he's able to continue to execute it for 15 minutes, or if Turcios can keep the pressure up enough that Smotherman tires before the end of the fight.
Turcios vs. Smotherman Pick, Prediction
While I don't love the idea of laying close to -200 on a fighter with a 1-2 record in the UFC, the dynamics here make for a pretty obvious opportunity.
The favored Smotherman should have plenty of success early while he's fresh, and still has the ability to defend or escape from takedowns coming back his way. That might be enough for him to put Turcios away or bank both of the first two rounds.
Or, Smotherman exerts so much energy in the first round that Turcios is eventually able to control him on the mat down the stretch. For that reason, I'll be making a prefight bet on Smotherman's moneyline at -190 via Caesars Sportsbook, but looking to jump on Turcios live if his line climbs north of +200 after the opening frame.
Billys Picks: Cameron Smotherman -190 (Caesars) | Turcios Live
