Check out my Spann vs Brzeski prediction for UFC 318 on Saturday, July 19.
Spann has lost four of his last five UFC fights, three of which were finishes. Brzeski hasn’t been better, losing five of his last six. Something’s got to give!
Here's my Spann vs Brzeski pick for tonight.
Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski Odds
| Spann Odds | -230 |
| McVey Odds | +190 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (+124/ -160)
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| Location | Smoothie King Center | New Orleans |
| Bout Time | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+
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| UFC 318 odds via DraftKings as of Friday night. Bet the UFC with our DraftKings promo code |
Spann vs Brzeski Pick
In a year of Heavyweight overs and decisions, I'm tempted to bet the Over 1.5 rounds and go to decision props at plus money between Ryan Spann – a former Light Heavyweight – and Lukasz Brzeski – a volume cardio kickboxer with a 2-5 promotional record and subpar power for the Heavyweight division.
Spann is dangerous early against any opponent (17 of 22 wins in Round 1; including his four most recent wins) but he has always shown poor cardio, and it wasn't necessarily weight-cut related at 205 pounds; Spann showed little to no improvement in his stamina in his second-round loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta in his Heavyweight debut in March.
Spann is both the bigger (1" taller, 3" reach) and far more athletic man than Brzeski, and could look like a significant favorite given his speed advantage in the early exchanges. Still, the one area Brzeski could excel in is volume in an extended fight. However, it seems unlikely to get there; Brzeski has three consecutive first-round losses and isn't exceptionally durable.
I do project value on the fight to go to decision (projected +462, listed +500) and on either fight to win by decision (projected Brzeski +957 and Spann +1099) depending upon the book – and I'd layer the GTD prop with the Over 1.5 rounds if you go that route.
Still, the best angle might be to wait on Brzeski's moneyline until a live spot after Round 1; after Spann drains his gas tank trying to finish early.
Spann vs Brzeski Predictions
- Over 1.5 Rounds (+150, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to +135)
- Fight goes to Decision (+550, 0.05u) at ESPNBet (bet to +475)
- Lukasz Brzeski Live after Round 1
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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