Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
| Pavlovich Odds | -245 |
| Cortes-Acosta Odds | +200 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-175/+135) |
| Location | Shanghai Indoor Center, Shanghai, China |
| Bout Time | 7:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Shanghai odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Shanghai with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction for UFC Shanghai on Saturday, August 23, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two of the top six heavyweights in the world collide on Saturday as Sergei Pavlovich looks to end the 5-fight winning streak of Waldo Cortes-Acosta. The volatility of this fight is apparent, as the range of outcomes spans from a slow-paced striking match to an early knockout by either man. I tend to side with the former considering the stylistic advantage that is in the favorites’ corner.
Here's my Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Pavlovich | Cortes-Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-3 | 14-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 4:47 | 11:50 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 257 lbs. | 260 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 84" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/13/1992 | 10/3/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.54 | 5.98 |
| SS Accuracy | 43% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.81 | 3.43 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| TD Acc | 40% | 50% |
| TD Def | 75% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.1 |
“Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta has ascended the ranks over the last two years, but his matchmaking has been remarkably soft.
His five fight win streak consists of three opponents no longer on the UFC roster, one light-heavyweight, and Sergei Spivac. In his victory over Spivac, Cortes-Acosta showed the ability to fend off takedowns which allowed him to attempt 225 strikes at distance. That output is impressive for any fighter, which is why I believe that was the best performance of his career.
However impressive that might have been, Spivac does not possess the firepower to threaten Cortes-Acosta the way Pavlovich will be throwing back at him. Cortes-Acosta will have to be much more measured in his approach when looking to close the distance. Pavlovich has a 6-inch reach advantage here, and also possesses the ability to wrestle, if needed.
Pavlovich only averages .63 takedowns per 15 minutes, but it would be quite advantageous for the former Greco-Roman wrestler if he made Cortes-Acosta at least think about the potential of getting dragged to the mat. If the fight does hit the ground, the threat of submission materializing is near zero, as Pavlovich has never won a fight by submission in is MMA career.
Pavlovich was credited with attempting 208 total strikes in his most recent win, but only 25 were at distance when striking. Cortes-Acosta will not be as easy to takedown as was Jairzinho Rozenstruik, which means you can expect prolonged action at kickboxing range.
Pavlovich landed just 38% of strikes aimed at the head of Rozenstruik, and just 31% of significant strikes aimed at the head of his opponent Alexander Volkov the fight prior. Cortes-Acosta has never been finished in his MMA career, so it’s not going to be an easy task for Pavlovich to get the stoppage in any manner.
When it comes to the power of the underdog, it’s simply overstated. Cortes-Acosta may have gotten his UFC contract by getting the knockout victory on Dana White’s Contender Series, but he has followed that up by only racking up two more in his next eight appearances in the octagon.
Those two KO victories came against Lukasz Brzeski and the fragile Ryan Spann, the aforementioned former light heavyweight.
Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta Pick, Prediction
I am expecting a timid start from two fighters that will likely lend too much respect to the others’ punching power.
The best price for this fight to go the distance currently sits at FanDuel at +164, which I like as a value, but I am going to avoid the potential pitfall that is cardio failing in the 3rd round. FanDuel also offers prices for each round to begin, which is the angle I’ll be attacking on Saturday.
My favorite angle is the fight to start Round 3, which is -106 there, the best line in the market.
John's Pick: Fight to start Round 3 : YES -106 (FanDuel)
