Check out my Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.
Here's my Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta prediction for tonight.
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
| Spivac Odds | -155 |
| Cortes-Acosta Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-260/+195) |
| Location | Prudential Center | Newark, New Jersey |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta Pick
I projected Serghei Spivac to win this matchup nearly 60% of the time and am comfortable laying his moneyline at that price point, around -150.
However, I'd prefer to bet Spivac to win either by submission (projected +195, listed +360) or inside the distance (projected +111, listed +180), given the potential grappling mismatch between these Heavyweights.
Spivac has faced a significantly higher level of competition within the division, including Jailton Almeida, Marcin Tybura, Ciryl Gane, Derrick Lewis, Tom Aspinall, and Tai Tuivasa. At the same time, Cortes-Acosta has run up a 7-1 record against mostly unranked fighters.
Aside from his win 45-year-old former champion Andrei Arlovski – whom "Salsa Boy" potentially robbed in a decision (out-struck 58-48); the third of four consecutive losses for Arlovski – actual Heavyweights opponents that Waldo have faced in the UFC have a combined record of 8-25; and he also defeated former Light Heavyweight Ryan Spann.
Additionally, Waldo has only faced one actual grappling test, which he failed against Marcos Rogerio de Lima (permitted three of seven takedowns, 5:01 control time). He's also more of a volume point fighter than a power puncher.
Spivac has struggled against more physical opponents, but I'd expect him to bully Cortes-Acosta, control his wrists, and take him for a ride (66% takedown accuracy; attempts 4.9 per five minutes at distance, 70% control rate).
While Waldo showed decent offensive grappling in his win over Taekwondo medalist Robelis Despaigne, I'm sure that, at age 33, three years Spivac's senior, his defensive grappling remains a liability.
Lastly, I show value on this fight to end inside the distance (projected -245, listed -196) but I do view Spivac as the likelier finisher threat of the pair, and prefer his props at plus money rather than laying juice.
Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta Predictions
Picks:
- Serghei Spivac wins Inside the Distance (+185, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
- Serghei Spivac wins by Submission (+350, 0.1u) at BetRivers (bet to +225)
