Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osborne Odds
| Erceg Odds | -575 |
| Osborne Odds | +425 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-166/+130) |
| Location | UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 109 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 109 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osborne prediction for UFC Vegas 109 on Saturday, August 9, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Steve Erceg was originally slated to fight undefeated prospect HyunSung Park, before Park was moved to last week's main event. Fortunately for Erceg, he gets a step down in competition agianst Ode Osborne, who likely saved his job with a win his last time out. Including his unsuccessful title challenge, Erceg has a three-fight losing streak of his own, and oddsmakers have him very likely to get back on track against Osborne.
Here's my Erceg vs. Osborne pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Erceg | Osborne | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-4 | 13-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:55 | 6:46 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 7/27/1995 | 1/9/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.45 | 3.20 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.03 | 3.82 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 46% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.84 | 1.11 |
| TD Acc | 26% | 28% |
| TD Def | 63% | 65% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 0.6 |
It's hard to remember a fighter whose rise and fall to the top of a division was more rapid than Erceg's.
Due to a dearth of available contenders, he found himself in a flyweight title fight against Alexandre Pantoja in just his fourth fight for the promotion. Since then, he's lost three in a row, giving him a .500 record in the UFC.
To Erceg's credit, those losses have all been against high-level competition. Two of the three losses came against flyweight champions, while the other came against a fellow former title challenger.
Osborne is none of those things, coming in as the #34 flyweight in Tapology's new rankings with a 5-6 UFC record. That three of those five wins came by knockout is one of the main reasons he's still employed by the promotion despite his three-fight skid in 2023 and 2024.
That Osborne has also been submitted in three of his losses also speaks to his fighting style. While he was a three-time state qualifier in high school wrestling, his submission grappling skills aren't quite UFC level.
"The Jamaican Sensation" struggles to get back to his feet when he's grounded, especially compared to the typical flyweights who don't spend much time on the canvas. He's too comfortable both striking from his back and looking for submissions from closed guard, but lacks the technical ability to pull them off against UFC-level competition.
When he does finally decide to attempt to stand up, he typically turns belly down into the mat or turtles, rather than trying to create space with his feet from his back. That leaves him vulnerable to both back takes and front head chokes, both of which he's been caught by in the UFC.
Erceg made his mark in the UFC with his striking, earning his title shot with a performance bonus-winning knockout over Matt Schnell in 2024. However, he's an underrated grappler, with six of his nine pre-UFC wins coming via submission.
He was also an Australian national champion wrestler in his youth, so his credentials are stronger than his 0.84 takedowns per 15 minutes would imply.
Erceg hasn't attempted a takedown in either of his two losses following his title fight, but it would make sense to see a change in approach here. Not only does the matchup call for it, but with a three-fight losing streak, he needs a win much more than an exciting fight.
Erceg vs. Osborne Pick, Prediction
I was hoping oddsmakers wouldn't catch on to the fact that grappling is the easiest path to victory for the favorite here.
Erceg's method of victory props around the industry all have a submission as the likeliest winning method for Erceg, despite the overall rate of submissions being lower than other methods of victory.
With that said, the +185 line on FanDuel is still a solid opportunity, considering how heavy of a favorite Erceg is. I'll start my betting on this fight with half of a unit on Erceg by sub at FanDuel, to return nearly a unit.
The angle I'm more interested in, though, is Erceg's takedown props. DraftKings has over 1.5 takedowns for Erceg at +130, and I'm projecting Erceg for a median of two takedowns. That makes plus-money on the over a solid value.
Plus, if Erceg gets a submission on his first takedown, we still turn a profit from the other bet.. The best case scenario is cashing both picks, but we have a fairly good chance of hitting at least one at plus-money.
Billy's Pick:Erceg via Submission +185 (FanDuel) | Erceg Over 1.5 Takedowns +130 (DraftKings)
